Nike TOC girls basketball tourney will turn up heat in Phoenix

Since 1997, the Nike Tournament of Champions has been the crucible for the best girls' basketball teams in the country. Thrown into the most intense competition in the country, 16 elite teams go at it in the Joe Smith Division — and 11 out of the past 14 years, the champion has gone on to be named the best in the country.

This year is likely to be no different, as the top three teams in the Xcellent 25 will be in Phoenix Dec. 18-22, along with three more schools in the Top 10. Throw in No. 25 Christ the King (Middle Village, N.Y.), and the immovable force can be counted on to meet the irresistible object on a regular basis.

What that means in practical terms is that the slightest letdown in any of the four games can cause a very good team to suddenly lose a game — or a national championship. Bishop McNamara, for example, had Maya Moore and Collins Hill of Georgia on the ropes with two minutes to go in 2006, but relaxed only slightly, and Collins Hill won the game and the top spot in the final rankings.

This year's favorite is Mater Dei (Santa Ana, Calif.), the consensus No. 1 in the nation — at least before the TOC. The Monarchs are led by UConn signee Kaleena Mosqueda-lewis, but that's only the tip of the iceberg: Alexyz Vaioletama is a powerful and skilled 6-1 forward (going to USC) and 6-1 guard Jordan Adams is considered the best player in the Class of 2012. Of course, Mater Dei has a lot more than that, because even having three elite players is no guarantee of a top seed at the TOC.

Bolingbrook (Ill.), for example, has 6-2 junior Morgan Tuck (committed to UConn), senior point guard Ariel Massengale (Tennessee) and 6-1 senior Taylor Tuck (Illinois), but that trio is only part of the reason the Raiders are No. 2. Juniors Cabriana Capers and Allie Hill and sophomore Kennedy Cattenhead are also highly recruited, and Bolingbrook has already recorded a 20-point win over No. 7 Memphis Central -- which also will be in Phoenix.

But the Tennessee team isn't even one of the top four seeds, as the field also includes two legendary Southern California programs: No. 3 Long Beach Poly (Calif.) and No. 6 Brea Olinda (Brea, Calif.). Poly, as usual, is blessed with tremendous depth, and may have as many as nine Division 1 players on its roster, while Brea (which has won more California state championships than other team, boys or girls) leads with juniors Keitra Wallace and Jeanier Olukemi. Six-foot-three Justine Hartman (UCLA) returns after missing a season with an ACL injury, and, adding to the intrigue, 6-1 sophomore Taylor Spears is on the team after transferring from Mater Dei.

Memphis Central (Tenn.) already has two losses, so why are the Lady Warriors still so highly regarded? Well, losing to No. 2 Bolingbrook and No. 6 Brea (in Hawaii this past weekend) is hardly disgraceful, and they also have wins over No. 12 Whitney Young and Northern California power Archbishop Mitty. Memphis Central also returns all five starters from a 27-4 team — and only one, by the way, is a senior.

Another young team, and this one with a hometown advantage, is St. Mary's (Phoenix). The Lady Knights have no seniors, and only two juniors start, but they're still No. 10 in the nation because each one of their top eight is a D-1 player, and most will wind up playing in power conferences in college.

Speaking of St. Mary's, one of the most interesting entrants this year is St. Mary's Catholic Secondary of Ontario, Canada. The Crusaders were 33-1 in Canada's fall season, and won their 10th state title Nov. 27. Point guard Kelly Roser (Northwestern) leads a deep, confident group, but they've drawn a first-round matchup with Brea that may cruelly highlight the gap between basketball in Ontario, Canada, and that played around Ontario, Southern California.

One team that definitely won't be intimidated is Christ the King of New York, which has been to every TOC. The Royals are led by a pair of BCS commits — Bria Smith (Virginia) and Nia Oden (Illinois) — but may find it difficult inside, as they have no one in the rotation taller than 6-0.

Oh, and just to confuse things, there's a third St. Mary's (Stockton, Calif.) in the Joe Smith Division. This one is from Northern California, and was a national title contender last season. The Rams lost a lot to graduation, but have reloaded, and their up-tempo, pressing style is always difficult to play against.

There's more to talk about in the Joe Smith Division, but that's not all there is to the Nike TOC. Check out tournament's Web site for the complete Nike TOC brackets, which more than 200 college coaches will be doing.

There's talent everywhere, starting with the John Anderson Division, which is headlined by No. 23 La Jolla Country Day (Calif.). Along with a bunch of strong California teams (Carondelet (Concord), Bellarmine-Jefferson (Burbank), Dougherty Valley (San Ramon), Windward (Los Angeles) and Pinewood (Los Altos Hills), just to name a few), the Anderson Division also has top teams in Regis Jesuit (Aurora, Colo.), Issaquah (Wash.), Central Catholic (Portland, Ore.) and Dillard (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.). Xavier College Prep (Phoenix) and Tolleson (Ariz.) are top Arizona entrants, and this bracket will be just as competitive as the Joe Smith Division — and will have almost as many college coaches in the stands.

There are five other brackets to the TOC, but the focus will be on the winners of the top two brackets. Though the John Anderson champion might make a push for a high national ranking, the Joe Smith winner will have an immediate leg up for the national title. Of course, whichever team it is will have to go back home and take care of business, and win its state playoffs, but any team that survives the heat in Phoenix will be seriously battle-tested.

And even those who don't go 4-0 in Phoenix have no need to be ashamed. More than one hundred state champions have played in the TOC, and more than one has gone 0-4 in the top division only to bounce back once their state competition begins. In fact, Mountain View (Orem, Utah) once lost six games in a three-year span — and all those losses came at the Nike TOC.

It's very likely the same scenarios will play out this year, but right now, state championships are in the distant future. What counts is this week in Phoenix, and surviving the crucible of the Nike TOC.