By Mitch Stephens
MaxPreps.com
FRESNO, Calif. - A healthy contingent of Bay Area runners and teams has strong chances to infiltrate a cross country meet often dominated by Southern Californians.
According to a terrific preview by dyestat.com's Rich Gonzalez, Dublin's James Attarian (Division III) and Healdsburg's Sarah Sumpter (D-IV) are the most likely to win individual crowns and Carondelet-Concord (D-II girls) and St. Mary's-Berkeley (D-IV girls) team championships in Saturday's CIF State Championships at Woodward Park in Fresno.
Everyone who has ever covered these races over the last two decades that there are very few locks, other than say, Mission Prep-San Luis Obispo junior Jordan Hasay, in this highly competitive meet and course which often features some sort of precipitation or fog.
Forecasts indicate nothing but dry cool conditions, which should bode for fast times.
Generally, the Bay Area excels in the lower division and Saturday should be no exception, especially in D-IV girls where Sumpter figures to battle Valley Christian-San Jose junior Jennifer Bergman for the title. St. Mary's, led by Taylor Lawson, Margot Sullivan and Alex Choy, blew away the North Coast Section field but will likely contend with Southern Section champion Marantha-Pasadena for the team crown.
Carondelet figures to defend its state championship and its top runner Nicole Hood has a shot at the individual crown. She edged fellow sophomore and longtime youth rival Jacque Taylor (Casa Grande-Petaluma) in last week's NCS Championships, but both will probably run behind Woodbridge's Christine Babcock, who figures to run the day's second fastest time behind Hasay, a national champion.
Babcock and Hasay are considered two of the state's all-time best already, according to Gonzalez.
Gonzalez considers Attarian one of the best-kept secrets in America and the D-III favorite in a wide open field. Central Coast Section's Gambileg Bor (Jefferson-Daly City) and defending champion Mohamed Abdalla (Willow Glen-San Jose) should be right with Attarian, while Acalanes' Nate Beach and Dublin's Jeremy Grace will battle for medals (top-10 finish).
Other Bay Area males who could challenge for a state crown are Palo Alto's Phillip MacQuitty (D-II), Palma-Salinas' Tyre Johnson and St. Mary's senior Matt Duffy (D-IV) and South Fork's Hank Carl and Chinese Christian-San Leandro's Victor Ho (D-V).
Other Bay Area individuals in the mix for titles include the St. Ignatius duo of Katy Daly and Rachel Hinds (D-III) and Half Moon Bay's Samantha Hamilton (D-IV).
Other local boys squads vying for state medals (top 3) include Petaluma (D-II), St. Francis-Mountain View (D-II), Aptos (D-III), Campolindo-Moraga (D-III), St. Mary's (D-IV) and University-San Francisco (D-V).
Other local girls teams with state-medal aspirations: Campolindo (D-III), St. Ignatius (D-III), Maria Carrillo-Santa Rosa (D-III), San Rafael (D-IV), College Prep-Oakland (D-V), Marin Academy (D-V) and University (D-V).
DREAMS ALIVE: A total of 13 Bay Area girls volleyball teams continue dreams of a possible CIF State Title game match with North Region semifinal action at 7 p.m. on Saturday.
In D-I, fourth seed San Benito-Hollister (28-11) travels to No. 1 Nevada Union-Grass Valley (42-4), while second seed Homestead-Cupertino (28-10) hosts No. 3 Amador Valley-Pleasanton (30-4).
Hollister defeated San Ramon Valley in three games in Tuesday first-round play, while Homestead swept Lowell-San Francisco and Amador Valley swept Davis.
In D-II, top-seed Archbishop Mitty (28-3) hosts Rocklin (35-7) while St. Francis-Mountain View (29-8) travels to third-seed St. Francis-Sacramento (32-6).
Mitty lost just 29 points while sweeping Red Bluff on Tuesday, when St. Francis-Mountain View traveled to Chico to sweet Pleasant Valley.
In D-III, third seed Bishop O'Dowd-Oakland (32-3) travels to No. 2 Sacred Heart Cathedral (27-9) in what seems to be an annual North Region playoff matchup.
O'Dowd defeated St. Ignatius in a wild match, 25-9, 31-33, 27-25, 25-23, while Sacred Heart had little trouble with Union Mine-El Dorado 25-14, 25-18, 25-21.
In D-IV, top seed Menlo School-Atherton (28-9) hosts Christian Brothers-Sacramento (28-10) while No. 2 Harker-San Jose (26-4) travels to No. 3 St. Mary's-Berkeley (30-8).
Menlo swept Gridley in a first-round match while St. Mary's and Harker had to go four games to defeat Ripon and Sutter, respectively.
In D-V, top seed Mt. Madonna-Watsonville (27-6) hosts Ripon Christian (23-10) at Bethany College and third seed Castilleja-Palo Alto (27-7) travels to No. 2 Rincon Valley Christian-Santa Rosa (36-3).
Mt. Madonna, Castilleja and Rincon Valley Christian all pulled off first-round sweeps.
FOOTBALL PAIRINGS/PREDICTIONS: There may be no better week in prep football than semifinal week. Here's are the matchups and predicted scores.
CENTRAL COAST SECTION
Open Division
No. 4 Bellarmine (10-1) vs. No. 1 Oak Grove (10-1) at San Jose City College, 7 p.m. Friday
No. 3 Gilroy (9-2) vs. No. 2 Los Gatos (9-1-1) at San Jose City College, 7 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: Bellarmine 31, Oak Grove 28; Los Gatos 28, Gilroy 27.
Large School
No. 4 Aragon (9-2) vs. No. 1 Menlo-Atherton (10-1) at Foothill College, 7 p.m. Friday
No. 3 Palo Alto (9-2) vs. No. 2 North Salinas (8-3) at Foothill College, 7 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: Aragon 24, Menlo-Atherton 21; Palo Alto 21, North Salinas 14.
Medium School
No. 6 Saratoga (8-3) vs. No. 2 Live Oak (7-4) at San Jose City College, 3 p.m. Friday
No. 4 Pioneer (6-4-1) vs. No. 1 Riordan (6-3-2) at Foothill College, 3 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: Live Oak 21, Saratoga 20; Riordan 35, Pioneer 21
Small School
No. 4 Scotts Valley (7-4) vs. No. 1 Pacific Grove (10-1) at Monterey Peninsula College, 7 p.m. Friday.
No. 6 Santa Cruz (8-3) vs. No. 2 Del Mar (11-0) at San Jose City College, 3 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: Pacific Grove 28, Scotts Valley 24; Del Mar 21, Santa Cruz 20.
NORTH COAST SECTION
Class 4A East Bay
No. 4 Monte Vista (8-3) at No. 1 De La Salle (10-0), 7 p.m. Friday
No. 3 California (10-1) at No. 2 James Logan (11-0), 7 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: De La Salle 42, Monte Vista 14; California 14, James Logan 13.
Class 3A Redwood Empire
No. 4 Sonoma Valley (8-2-1) at No. 1 Cardinal Newman (9-1-1), 7 p.m. Friday
No. 2 Rancho Cotate (9-2) at No. 3 Casa Grande (9-1-1), 7 p.m. Saturday.
Predicted scores: Cardinal Newman 28, Sonoma Valley 17; Rancho Cotate 17, Casa Grande 14
Class 2A East Bay
No. 7 Campolindo (8-3) at No. 3 Encinal (9-2), 7 p.m. Friday
No. 5 Ygnacio Valley (7-4) at No. 1 Las Lomas (11-0), 7 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: Encinal 35, Campolindo 28; Las Lomas 28, Ygnacio Valley 21
Class 2A Redwood Empire
No. 4 Terra Linda (6-5) at No. 1 Novato (10-0), 1 p.m. Saturday
No. 2 Healdsburg (9-1) at No. 3 Del Norte (10-0), 7 p.m. Saturday
Predicted score: Novato 28, Terra Linda 12; Healdsburg 21, Del Norte 20
Class A
No. 5 King's Academy (8-2) at No. 1 St. Patrick/St. Vincent (11-0), 7 p.m. Friday
No. 6 Salesian (10-1) at No. 3 Ferndale (10-1), 1 p.m. Saturday
Predicted scores: St. Patrick 34, King's Academy 21; Ferndale 15, Salesian 14.
Class B
No. 1 St. Vincent (7-3) vs. No. 4 Point Arena (8-2) at Santa Rosa, 7 p.m. Friday
No. 3 St. Elizabeth (6-4) vs. No. 2 South Fork (7-4) at Burrell Field-San Leandro, 7 p.m.
Predicted scores: St. Vincent 14, Point Arena 13; St. Elizabeth 28, South Fork 21.
E-mail Mitch Stephens at mstephens@maxpreps.com.