By Mitch Stephens
MaxPreps.com
Heading into final football section championship games this weekend, the California bowl picture is suddenly looking a little soggy.
Considerable favorites and obvious picks could get done in by the great equalizer: water.
Rain is forecast throughout the Golden State Friday and Saturday, which is good for the drought-infested region.
But it's bad for fast, physically-gifted football teams looking to speed past less-talented foes that are looking for any edge.
A slippery ball and slow pitch might just do the trick which could then turn an already fuzzy bowl picture into a water-downed work of Jackson Pollack.
Remember, only section champs are eligible for the Bowl Championships, which are Dec. 15 at the Home Depot Center in Carson.
The three Bowl Championship games pit Northern and Southern California teams in Divisions I (large enrollment), Division II (medium) and Division III (small) and are selected by the state's 10 section commissioners on Sunday.
Last week we gave our odds-on favorites to be picked in each division, and then offered a quick and dirty opinion of what we thought would really happen. Some of those favorites were knocked off last week, but how we thought the whole process would unravel is right on course.
But December showers might wash those predictions away.
So now we offer this:
The following are title games that should prove pivotal in deciding state bowl bids. We'll attempt to pick the winners of those contests and then magically climb into the brains of the commissioners to predict their picks.
Phew!
Games are laid out by Division and timeline.
Remember to click back here Friday and Saturday for live coverage of all the games. We'll be at the Los Angeles City Championships on Friday and the Home Depot Center for a Southern Section tripleheader on Saturday. Sunday we'll be live on site when the commissioners announce their selections and file stories immediately.
Also, please check out senior writer Kevin Askeland's preview of every championship game in the state. Mr. Askeland has remarkably blanketed the long and wide state from seering summer previews to today's wet and near wintery championships.
DIVISION I SOUTH
Los Angeles City Championship
Birmingham-Lake Balboa (12-1) vs. Carson (11-2) Friday, 8 p.m., Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Assuming Centennial-Corona takes care of business (see below), Carson could make things easy on the bowl committee with a win here. But Birmingham appears to have just too many horses on defense and one big thoroughbred carrying the ball, UCLA-bound Milton Knox (2,031 yards, 36 touchdowns).
Southern Section Inland Championship
Santiago-Corona (8-4) vs. Centennial-Corona (12-1) Saturday, noon, Home Depot Center, Carson
Centennial coach Matt Logan swears his team won't be over-confident, but then we're assuming the Huskies are made up primarily of Oxygen, Carbon and Hydrogen. How could they not be overconfident? They beat this team 69-7 during the regular season. Clearly, Santiago is not the same team following back-to-back wins against undefeated teams vaulting them into Saturday's title game. But still, you mix revenge, with cross-town emotions, and a lot of moisture and wackier things have happened. Like Long Beach Poly winning 2-0 over Orange Lutheran last week.
Southern Section Pac-5 Championship
Long Beach Poly (12-1) vs. Crespi-Encino (11-2) Saturday, 8 p.m., Home Depot Center, Carson
Even if Poly defeats Crespi, the Jackrabbits need both Centennial and Birmingham to lose to get the nod. The chances of all three happening are fairly remote. Another problem for Poly: a slow turf favors Crespi. By the third game of a tripleheader at Home Depot late Saturday night and this field will likely be a slough.
FINAL WORD: Winners will be Birmingham, Centennial and Crespi. I wouldn't want to pick between Birmingham and Centennial. The teams are razor close, talented and worthy. A city team like Birmingham, one of the best in years according to Los Angeles Times columnist Eric Sondheimer, certainly has sentimental appeal, but the commissioners will take a more diplomatic stance, note the teams' one common opponent (Crespi) and objectively pick Centennial. Remember, Centennial beat Crespi 41-20 and Birmingham lost to the Celts 20-6.
DIVISION I NORTH
North Coast Section 4A Championship
De La Salle-Concord (11-0) vs. California-San Ramon (11-1), Saturday, 7 p.m., McAfee (Oakland) Coliseum
De La Salle is so good this year and dominated this section so thoroughly over the years - 15 straight titles, 43 consecutive games - it's hard to come up with any intrigue. Except if Mother Nature intervenes. Combine a downpour with California's extremely active physical defense led by linebacker Nick Rosato (136 tackles) and defensive end Osayaba Ona-Enagbare (88 tackles, 11 sacks), then perhaps lightning strikes.
FINAL WORK: Central Coast Section champion Oak Grove-San Jose (12-1) is waiting in the wings and an extremely good D-I Napa team plays St. Mary's for the Sac-Joaquin Section title on Saturday. But if De La Salle wins the Spartans are a sure-fire lock. However, if lightning struck and De La Salle lost, logic might point to Oak Grove or Napa as the commissioner's pick. But we think the team that dethrones the Spartans would earn the right to play for all the granola. But why even consider such nuttiness? It's De La Salle again. In a downpour. Pick De La Salle.
DIVISION II SOUTH
Southern Section Pac-5 Championship
Long Beach Poly (12-1) vs. Crespi (11-2) Saturday, 8 p.m., Home Depot Center, Carson
If Crespi prevails as we predicted above, the Celts will not only have climbed the state's high section mountain, the Pac-5, but it will have defeated this murderer's row of Southern California and at one time nationally-ranked teams: Birmingham (20-6), St. Bonaventure-Ventura (25-9), Notre Dame-Sherman Oaks (23-3), Mater Dei-Santa Ana (48-26), Servite-Anaheim (13-10) and Poly. If that's not a resume for the state-title game, nothing is.
San Diego Section Division II Championship
Oceanside (10-1) vs. Mission Hills-San Marcos (10-1) 4:30 p.m. Friday at Qualcomm Stadium
Both teams dealt with major rainstorms last week, each escaped in the mud with narrow victories, and both rode the legs of workhorse backs. Mission Hills gave 6-foot, 200-pound Brian Wilson the ball 35 times for 242 yards and two scores in a 17-14 upset over Helix. Oceanside gave the ball to Armani Taylor 26 times for 101 yards and both touchdowns in a 14-10 win over La Costa Canyon. Oceanside coach John Carroll is after his fourth straight SDS title and eighth overall. The Pirates have been there and done that but never with a state title game at stake.
FINAL WORD: Crespi and Oceanside win, but the commissioners pick the Celts based on their healthy body of work. Pick Crespi.
DIVISION II NORTH
North Coast Section 2A Championship
Las Lomas-Walnut Creek (13-0) vs. Novato (12-0) Friday, 7:30 p.m., Santa Rosa High
An absolutely fantastic match-up featuring the terrific Las Lomas quartet of running back Danny Ward (1,619 yards, 20 TDs), quarterback Max Yago and receivers Diante Jackson (57 catches, 1,157 yards, 16 TDs) and Corey Paclebar (43-890-10) and the superior balance of Novato.
San Joaquin Section Division I Championship
St. Mary's-Stockton (12-1) vs. Napa (12-1) Saturday, 1 p.m., University of Pacific, Stockton
This should be one of the best games this weekend. St. Mary's, the D-II NorCal front-runner playing in a D-I tournament, aren't very big - not coincidently the Rams didn't fill out heights and weights on their MaxPreps roster - but are big on entertainment. They fly to the ball on defense, fling it around to a super trio of receivers and then hand it off to 5-5, 150-pound (I know that because I asked him) super scat back Brandon Warren. Napa has its own super mite in 5-6, 190-pound Jake Croxdale (1,921 yards rushing, 32 touchdowns) however its premier player is a State Player of the Year nominee John Boyett, a 6-foot, 190-pound specimen headed to Oregon. Try on his numbers: he's completed 99 of 155 passes for 1,667 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions; rushed 193 times (counting sacks) for 1,383 yards and 17 more scores; and added 70 tackles, a sack and two interceptions. He also punts, returns kicks and holds on place kicks.
FINAL WORD: This may be the toughest of the six divisions to pick. We're thinking St. Mary's edges Napa, then because of its title in a larger and stronger division, gets the nod barely over the Las Lomas-Novato winner, undefeated Northern Section power Foothill-Palo Cedro (12-0) and SJS Division III champion Oakdale (12-1). Pick St. Mary's.
DIVISION III SOUTH
Southern Section Southern Northern Championship
St. Bonaventure-Ventura (12-1) vs. Hart-Newhall (12-0-1) Saturday, 4 p.m., Home Depot Center, Carson
This may very well be the best game in the state this weekend. St. Bonaventure's bread, butter and jelly is one of the nation's top running backs Darrell Scott (2,127 yards, 27 TDs) but if the field resembles peanut butter the Seraphs could be in trouble. Hart has forever been known to air it out however this year the Indians have Delano Howell (251 carries, 2,159 yards, 28 touchdowns). Scott ran for 251 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-36 win over Saugus last week. The Stanford-bound Howell raced for 268 yards and five scores in a 37-6 win over Newbury Park. The two teams have combined for 13 section titles over the last 12 years and have faced off six times overall, with St. Bonny winning four. Hart eliminated the Seraphs last year in the quarterfinals 27-14. This is the third straight year Scott has made it to a section final, losing the last two years at Moorpark. His transfer to St. Bonny caused quite a stir - according to the Ventura County Star, Hart cancelled its scheduled nonleague game with the Seraphs this season because of it. The Indians aren't backing out now.
Southern Section Southern Northwestern Championship
Nordhoff (9-3-1) vs. Oaks Christian-Westlake Village (10-3), Friday, 7:30 p.m., Newbury Park HS
Oaks Christian defeated Nordhoff 42-6 earlier in the year and there's no reason to believe a major turnaround is in store. Oaks Christian, the defending state Division III champions, has done a terrific job of re-tooling after losing something like 10 Division I-A athletes to graduation from last year's dream team. The Lions should win handily on Friday, then sport their favorite red, black and white Hart sweaters and cheer on the Indians on Saturday.
San Diego Section Division V
Bishop's-La Jolla (11-0) vs. Christian-El Cajon (10-1), Friday, 10 a.m., Qualcomm Park
If St. Bonaventure loses and Oaks Christian and Bishop's wins, the commissioners will be left with an undefeated San Diego Section team and a three-loss Southern Section team. Based on history, strength of schedule and about everything else - Oaks Christian is ranked No. 37 in the state overall according to Ned Freeman's computer rankings and Bishop's is No. 141 - the obvious pick is the Lions. But we're concerned the commissioners won't find this nearly so clear.
FINAL WORD: St. Bonny wins by a field goal and no other discussion is needed. Pick St. Bonaventure.
DIVISION III NORTH
North Coast Section 3A Championship
Cardinal Newman-Santa Rosa (11-1-1) vs. San Ramon Valley-Danville (11-1-1), Saturday, 4 p.m., McAfee (Oakland) Coliseum
Another one of the better games especially because the two schools have rarely or ever met. San Ramon Valley is a Division I school, so Newman can make a fantastic case that it deserves a return trip to Carson after losing an overtime thriller to Oaks Christian last year. Like Oaks Christian, Newman lost a ton to graduation but behind one of the state's best coaching jobs (Paul Cronin), the Cardinals are in the title hunt again. This is great matchup of quarterbacks, Newman's Max Pond against San Ramon Valley super junior Joe Southwick. Pond deserves state Player of the Year mention after completing 180 of 260 (70 percent), 2,285 yards, 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions to go along with 902 yards rushing and 17 more scores. I think San Ramon Valley's defense might just be a little better and the Wolves squeak out the win.
FINAL WORD: With that said, Central Catholic-Modesto (12-1), a program with rich tradition and one of Northern California's featured players, Louis Bland, is the obvious choice. If Newman wins, however, then you have an absolute hair-splitter. Central Catholic and Newman tied to start the season (couldn't they have played overtime?). My gut feeling is the commissioners, with all things being equal, will go with the team that has NOT been to state before. Plus Modesto will bring quite a following. Pick Modesto Christian.
Disagree? Tell me what you think of any/all the divisions. E-mail Mitch Stephens at mstephens@maxpreps.com.