By Hal Levy, Shore Line Newspapers
Special to MaxPreps.com
Add Berlin and Conard-West Hartford to the list of teams which have, unofficially, clinched berths in the CIAC football playoffs, according to calculations by Shore Line Newspapers.
Both teams won season finales over the weekend to finish at 9-1 in divisions M and L, respectively.
The two join previous clinchers Southington, Bunnell-Stratford, Daniel Hand-Madison, Bristol Eastern, Ansonia, Cromwell and New London. The other 15 berths in the 24-team, six-division field will be filled this week, concluding Thanksgiving Day (assuming the weather co-operates as forecast).
To clinch a playoff berth, a team must have earned - or be guaranteed - more points than all but three others in its division. Guarantees are calculated if a team has a win over two schools which have not yet met but are scheduled to do so, and takes into account the premise that all games scheduled will be played for decided by forfeit.
CLASS LL
Southington (9-0-0 record, 1230 points, 136.67 average) is assured of a spot in Class LL and locks up the top seed and a home game if it beats Cheshire Thursday.
Greenwich (8-1-0, 1160, 128.85) is in if it can beat undefeated Staples Thursday. Shelton (8-1-0, 1130, 125.56) also is in if it can handle Derby.
The fourth slot is still up in the air. Bridgeport Central (7-1-0, 940, 117.50) has Warren Harding left and will finish with an average someplace between 116.67 and 122.22 with a win. Central will only add 100 for beating winless Harding and has 10 guaranteed points from the winner of Westhill-Stamford. Central has five other possibilities and can get 10 each if Bassick bests Bullard-Havens, Norwalk beats McMahon, Trumbull tops St. Joseph, Danbury downs Ridgefield and Darien upsets New Canaan.
Fairfield Prep (7-2-0, 1005, 111.67) has West Haven left and can get to a total of between 1145 and 1195 with a win. Prep, too, has five outside "if" games: Wilbur Cross over Hillhouse, Law over Foran, Xavier over Middletown, Lyman Hall over Sheehan and Amity over North Haven. Norwich Free Academy (7-2-0, 980, 108.89) has New London to play. That's a 190-point win and the Wildcats have seven "if" games: Stamford over Westhill, East Lyme over Waterford, Plainfield over Griswold, Windham over E.O.
Smith, St. Bernard over Montville, Fitch over Ledyard and Bacon Academy over RHAM. NFA's best is 1240, which would be good enough to claim the fourth spot.
Newtown, which can max out at 1130 if it beats Masuk, has to hope Central, NFA and Prep all lose and even that might not be enough.
CLASS L
Bunnell (9-0-0, 1270, 141.11) has a spot in Class L clinched and will get the top seed and a home game should it beat Stratford. Bunnell's win over Masuk for the Southwest Conference title does not count in the playoff standings, nor does Ansonia's victory over Woodland in the Naugatuck Valley League.
Staples (8-0-0, 1090, 136.25) is in with a win over Greenwich and still has a shot even with a loss. Staples has 20 in guarantees from the winners of McMahon-Norwalk and Darien-New Canaan for a worst possible average of 123.33. That can get to 127.78 if Harding tops Bridgeport Central, Ridgefield beats Danbury, Ludlowe beats Warde and Stamford beats Westhill. That 127.78 figure is a lock no matter what else happens.
Conard (9-1-0, 1250, 125.00) is done and has clinched. The Chieftains are guaranteed 10 from the winner of Bloomfield-Windsor for a minimum of 1260.
Masuk (8-1-0, 1040, 115.56) will also clinch if it beats Newtown and gets any kind of outside help. Masuk would get 170 for that win and is guaranteed 30 from Brookfield-Bethel, Pomperaug-Nonnewaug and New Milford-New Fairfield. That's a minimum of 1240. Masuk also has "if" games from Immaculate over Notre Dame-Fairfield and Weston over Barlow.
Newington (8-1-0, 1030, 114.44) has Wethersfield left, which is worth 150, and will get 10 from the winner of Platt-Maloney. That puts the Indians at 1190 and they have six "if" possibilities: Hartford Public over Weaver, E.O. Smith over Windham, Manchester over East Hartford, Bloomfield over Windsor, Bulkeley over Sports and Medical Sciences and Bristol Central over Bristol Eastern.
Any combination of two "if" games going right for Masuk or wrong for Newington gives Masuk the spot under any circumstances. Masuk also holds a healthy edge in tie-breaker points, 80-74, going into the week. It will add four points to that (Newtown has seven wins, Wethersfield has five and each opponent's win is worth two points in the tie-breaker), meaning realistically, Masuk has to have just one thing to right to make it.
Pomperaug can max out at 1100 and needs Newington and Masuk to lose to have any kind of a shot.
CLASS MM
Hand (9-0-0, 1340, 148.89) is the only team to have clinched in Class MM, and the other three spots will depend directly on Thanksgiving outcomes. New Canaan (7-2-0, 1030, 114.44) has Darien to play and will clinch with a win. The Rams could still slip in with a loss. New Canaan will have between 1050 and 1080 points in that case, with "if" games including Trumbull over St. Joseph, Warde over Ludlowe and Bassick over Bullard-Havens.
Middletown (7-2-0, 970, 107.78) is in if it can beat Xavier. The Dragons have 10 coming from the winner of Rocky Hill-Farmington and have four "if" games: Enfield over Fermi, Plainville over Northwest Catholic, RHAM over Bacon and St. Paul over Wilcox Tech. With a loss, Middletown is between 980 and 1020. If North Haven or Ellington loses, Middletown is in no matter what.
North Haven (7-2-0, 900, 100.00) will be pretty close if it beats Amity. That win is worth 160 and the Indians are guaranteed 10 from the Sheehan-Lyman Hall game. North Haven's "ifs" are Foran over Law, Cross over Hillhouse, Cheshire over Southington, East Haven over Branford and Derby over Shelton. That's a range of 1070 to 1120.
Ellington (7-2-0, 870, 96.67) can catch North Haven. Ellington has Tolland to play, which is worth 170, and has 20 from the winners of Gilbert-Housatonic and Windsor Locks-Suffield. Ellington's three "if" games are Valley Regional over Haddam-Killingworth, Morgan over Old Saybrook and Canton over Vinal-Coginchaug. Ellington's window is 1060 to 1090 with a win.
Maloney can max out at 940 and needs North Haven and Ellington both to lose to have any shot at all.
CLASS M
Bristol Eastern (9-0-0, 1290, 143.33) is in and has Bristol Central to play. But a win for Eastern might not guarantee a home game. Eastern's range with a win is 1430-1470.
Weaver can max out at 1440, although for that to happen, Eastern would have at least 1440 also. Weaver does hold a huge tie-breaker edge. Ledyard also can surpass Eastern in average.
Ledyard (7-1-0, 1100, 137.50) has Fitch to play and will have between 1280 and 1330 points in nine games with a win. That latter figure enough to clinch a home game (147.78 average) but the former (142.22) night not be. If Ledyard loses, it will average between 122.22 and 127.78, which might be enough.
Weaver (8-1-0, 1230, 136.67) will range between 1390 and 1440 if it beats Hartford Public, which locks up a spot. With a loss, the Beavers will finish between 1230 and 1280, which might still be enough.
Berlin (9-1-0, 1310, 131.00) is in. The Redcoats will get 10 from the Farmington-Rocky Hill winner and could go as high as 1370 with other "if" wins, but the 1320 cannot be beaten by Avon or Jonathan Law.
Law (8-1-0, 1090, 121.11) has Foran to play and will range between 1220 and 1280 with a win. Avon (9-1-0, 1200, 120.00) is done. Avon will pick up 40 points in guarantees and can add 10 from one "if" game (Coventry over Cromwell) for a best of 1250.
CLASS SS
This is the only division with four spots open; although its really only three since the Seymour-Woodland winner is a lock. Both are 8-1-0 with Seymour having 1130 points and a 125.56 average to Woodland's 1100 and 122.22. The loser needs Stratford, Tolland or Bullard Havens to lose to have a spot regardless.
Stratford (8-1-0, 1080, 120.00) is also a lock if it beats Bunnell. Stratford also gets in if two from among St. Joseph, Tolland and Bullard Havens loses.
Bullard Havens (7-1-0, 960, 120.00) is fourth but even a win over Bassick might not be enough. That win is worth 130 and B-H has 10 coming from the winner of Wright Tech-Platt Tech and can get 20 more if Sports Sciences knocks off Bulkeley and Wilcox Tech beats St. Paul. That's a range of 122.22 to 124.45.
Tolland (7-2-0, 1030, 114.44) has Ellington to play. A win (180 points) and 20 in guarantees from Windsor Locks-Suffield and Gilbert-Housatonic pushes Tolland to 1230. Add 10 if Coventry beats Cromwell for a best of 1240. Tolland thus has an edge if both it and Bullard Havens win.
Cheney Tech (8-2-0, 1020, 102.00) can max out at 1070, which means it needs Tolland and Bullard-Havens to lose.
St. Joseph can max out at 1100, so it needs to beat Trumbull and have Stratford, Bullard Havens and Tolland lose, although there is math that would allow the Cadets in if one of those teams wins.
CLASS S
This one is pretty simple. Cromwell (9-0-0, 1340, 148.89), Ansonia (9-0-0, 1320. 146.67) and New London (9-0-0, 1280, 142.22) are in. If Northwest Catholic (7-2-0, 1060, 117.78) beats Plainville, it joins the group with a range someplace between 1210 and 1260.
Rocky Hill (7-2-0, 990, 110.00) can get to a best of 1200 if it beats Farmington. If both Northwest and Rocky Hill lose, the spot will go to Hyde Leadership (8-2-0, 1150, 115.00) which has 20 more in guarantees coming and could add 30 to that. At 1170, Hyde beats the best Haddam-Killingworth (1140) and Montville (1120) have to offer.