By Hal Levy, Shore Line Newspapers
Special to MaxPreps.com
A half-dozen teams have joined Daniel Hand-Madison in unofficially clinching berths for the CIAC state football playoffs.
Hand actually earned a Class MM spot last weekend when it defeated West Haven. This week, three teams in Class S (Ansonia, Cromwell and New London) and one each in Class LL, L and M (Southington, Bunnell-Stratford and Bristol Eastern) have also clinched, according to unofficial statistics compiled by Shore Line Newspapers.
The official rankings will be released by the CIAC football committee after the season concludes.
Clinches take into account the prospect that all scheduled games will be played or forfeited, since the projections take into account "guaranteed" points from games which have not yet been played. A team gets a guarantee of 10 points if it has beaten two teams which still have to play each other.
The Class S field is nearly complete. Ansonia (9-0-0 record, 1,320 points, 146.67 average) wrapped up a spot by beating Seymour Thursday night. Cromwell (9-0-0, 1310, 145.56) did likewise when it defeated Haddam-Killingworth. New London (9-0-0, 1270, 141.11) also clinched by beating Tourtellotte.
The fourth spot is interesting. Currently, Northwest Catholic holds it. NWC (7-2-0, 1,050, 116.67) has Plainville to play and will pick up 170 points with a win (150 for beating Plainville and 20 in guarantees). A win will give Northwest a clinch for the fourth spot with a minimum of 1210. Rocky Hill (7-2-0, 980, 100.89) can reach 1,210 if it beats Farmington and has all its outside "if" games come through. However, since two of Rocky Hill's "ifs" are also on Northwest's list (Enfield over Fermi and RHAM over Bacon), if Rocky Hill maxes out, Northwest will have at least 1,230.
Hyde Leadership (7-2-0, 970, 107.78) can get into the picture if Northwest and Rocky Hill both lose and it beats North Branford this weekend. Hyde can get to a best of 1,200 and a worst of 1,170 with a win. Haddam-Killingworth (6-2-0, 820, 102.50) has Old Saybrook and Valley Regional left and can max out at 1,150, which works only if Northwest, Rocky Hill and Hyde all lose. Montville (7-2-0, 900, 100.00) is alive mathematically with a best of 1,110 but needs Northwest, Rocky Hill, Hyde and HK all to lose.
In Class LL, Southington (9-0-0, 1,220, 135.56) clinched when it beat New Britain this past weekend. Southington is guaranteed 30 points from the Simsbury-Glastonbury, South Windsor-Rockville and East Hartford-Manchester games for a worst-case total of 1,250. Norwich Free Academy (6-2-0, 840, 105.00) has Bacon Academy and New London left. If it wins both and gets all possible "if" game help, it will max out at 1,230.
Greenwich (8-1-0, 1,160, 128.89) lost momentum in a setback at Naples, Fla., Friday night and now needs to beat Staples-Westport to clinch a berth. If Greenwich loses, it will be between 1,170 and 1,230 points which might not be enough. Similarly, Shelton (8-1-0, 1,130, 125.56) is in with a win over Derby but might otherwise not make it. The Gaels will have 1,150 to 1,190 with a loss.
Bridgeport Central (7-1-0, 940, 117.50) holds down the fourth spot and plays winless Warren Harding on Thanksgiving. But a win might not do it. Central will average between 116.67 and 122.22 points if it wins, depending on five "if" games. That might not be enough to hold off NFA.
Fairfield Prep (7-2-0, 1005, 111.67) can max out at 1,195 if it beats West Haven and gets all five of its "if" games. That could also beat out Central.
Newtown and New Britain can get to a best of 1,130 and need teams above them to lose.
Bunnell (9-0-0, 1,270, 141.11) has clinched in Class L. The Bulldogs have 40 guaranteed points coming from Brookfield-Bethel, Masuk-Newtown, Notre Dame-Immaculate and New Fairfield-New Milford for a worst-case of 1,310. That means Bunnell has clinched a first-round home game as well since only Staples can surpass that 131.00 average.
The Wreckers (8-0-0, 1090, 136.25) will clinch if they beat Greenwich. If they lose, they will average 123.33 on the low end and 127.78 on the high end. The latter number is a lock, the lower number is not.
Conard-West Hartford (8-1-0, 1090, 121.11) gains a berth if it beats cross-town rival William Hall this weekend. That would put Conard at 1,260 or better. Newington (8-1-0, 1,020, 113.33) is currently fifth and can max out at 1,250 if it beats Wethersfield and gets all possible outside help.
Masuk (8-1-0, 1,040, 115.86) is fourth and has Newtown left. If will finish at between 1,240 and 1,260 with a win, so it is possible for a team in the division to go 9-1 and not make the playoffs.
Pomperaug (7-2, 950, 105.56) can max out at 1,110 and needs losses by Masuk and Newington to have a chance.
Hand (9-0-0, 1340, 148.89) has clinched a home game and the top seed in Class MM. The Tigers still have Guilford to play, but with 10 points in a guarantee from the Shelton-Derby winner, it's all over.
New Canaan (7-2-0, 1,030, 114.44) has Darien to play and is in with a win. Middletown (7-2-0, 970, 107.78) has Xavier left and also is in with a victory. New Canaan would finish at between 1,190 and 1,220 and Middletown between 1,140 and 1,190 with wins.
Ellington (7-1-0, 840, 105.00) is fourth and has big point games left with Avon and Tolland. Two wins would propel Ellington to a total between 1,230 and 1,270, which would be good for second place.
North Haven (7-2-0, 900, 100.00) has Amity left. The Indians can get to between 1,070 and 1,120 with a win. If Ellington splits, it will finish between 1,050 and 1,100.
Maloney, with a best of 940, needs North Haven to lose and Ellington to lose two to have a shot.
In Class M, Bristol Eastern (9-0-0, 1,290, 143.33) has earned a berth. Ledyard (7-1-0, 1,090, 136.25) is second and will clinch if it beats Fitch. That win, plus 20 points from the winner of Waterford-East Lyme would leave the Colonels with a worst-case average of 130.00 in nine games. Jonathan Law-Milford, Avon and Windham can't match that.
Berlin (8-1-0, 1,190, 132.22) has East Catholic left to play this weekend and will also clinch with a win. The Redcoats would have a minimum of 1,300 points in 10 games, also a 130.00 average.
Weaver-Hartford is the enigma. The Beavers (7-1-0, 1,040, 130.00) have New Britain and Hartford Public to play and will be in handily with two wins. But with a loss to New Britain, Weaver goes to a best of 1,260 with a win over Public plus all possible "if" games.
Law (8-1-0, 1,090, 121.11) has Foran left and will finish at between 1,220 and 1,280 with a win. Avon (8-1-0, 1,010, 112.22) has Ellington and will be at 1,240 to 1,260 with a win. Thus, a 9-1 team could stay home here, too.
Windham (7-2-0, 980, 108.89) can max out at 1,160 and needs Law and Avon to lose or one of them to lose one and Weaver to lose twice.
No one has yet clinched a spot in Class SS, and Thanksgiving will be very interesting in the Valley where Seymour and Woodland, who sit 1-2 in the rankings, play one another.
Seymour (8-1-0, 1,130, 125.56) and Woodland (8-1-0, 1,110, 122.22) are pretty much mirror images. Each lost to Ansonia and each has 30 points in guarantees coming. And the winner can still finish second in the division behind Stratford.
Either Seymour or Woodland finishes with 210 points for a win and a possibility of 20 outside points. That would put Seymour at 1,340-1,360 and Woodland at 1,310-1,330.
Stratford (8-1-0, 1,080, 120.00) has Bunnell left and gets 210 for a win plus 20 in guaranteed bonus points. That ups the ante to 1,310 with the possibility of 40 "if" points.
Bullard Havens (7-2-0, 950, 118.75) has Bassick left and is guaranteed 20 from the winners of Cheney Tech-Platt Tech and Wright Tech-Platt Tech. That leaves the Lions with an average of at least 122.22 with a win and that mark can climb to 125.56 with three "if" games.
Tolland (7-2-0, 1,000, 111.11) has Ellington left and with a win and 40 in guarantees will finish at between 1,220 and 1,250 points (122.00 to 125.00 average).
St. Joseph-Trumbull (1,100 best) and Cheney Tech-Manchester (1,080 best) are still alive, mathematically.