Point-Counterpoint: Salesian or Sheldon in California boys basketball regional semifinal?

MaxPreps correspondent Joe Davidson has covered high school sports for the Sacramento Bee since 1988. Between the Bay Area Newspaper Group, the San Francisco Chronicle and MaxPreps.com, I've covered preps since 1984.

But no one cares about us or our credentials.

All Northern California basketball fans want to know is who is going to win Tuesday's CIF Northern California Open Division semifinal Titanic between Salesian (Richmond) (30-3) and Sheldon (Sacramento) (26-5) at St. Mary's College in Moraga. The game was so big the venue was changed from Albany High School to accommodate the anticipated crowd. McKeon Pavilion seats 3,500 fans.

See CIF state boys brackets

Salesian opened the season at No. 10 and Sheldon No. 16 in the MaxPreps Xcellent 25 national rankings, but each fell out after early defeats. Salesian is currently No. 29 and Sheldon No. 37 in the MaxPreps Freeman computer rankings.

See CIF state girls brackets

Since Mr. Davidson and I have been covering this material since LeBron James was born, someone came up with the bright idea to write down who we think will win tonight's game and why. Without further ado: 

Why Sheldon wins...

Joe Davidson: You can't help but admire and appreciate the Bay Area muscle, pedigree and reputation of Bay Area high school hoops.

They've won the championships and sent boatloads of talent to the Division I college ranks, sometimes the NBA. This season, the Bay trotted out top seeds in all six divisions, including the first elite Open Division. And the Bay has three McDonald's All-Americans roaming the courts in Jabari Bird of Salesian, Aaron Gordon of Mitty (San Jose) and Marcus Lee of Deer Valley (Antioch).

The Sac-Joaquin Section has been no pushover through the years, and it features some terrific teams and talents this winter but, collectively, is not as strong as the Bay. The gap is still considerable.

Maybe it narrows a bit this season. Maybe Tuesday in particular, things change. Mark down March 12, 2013 as a defining moment for the section.

Or not.

Sheldon has been The Sacramento Bee's top-ranked team all season, and it has been Northern California ranked No. 2 in recent weeks behind Salesian. The teams face off in a CIF NorCal Regional Open Division showdown many of us expected to be a NorCal Open title game, if not for curious seeding selections.

If there's a time for Sacramento and the section to stand tall, it's now, and it unfolds in Moraga at St. Mary's College. This Sheldon group — skilled, unselfish, tough and determined — is one of the greatest groups ever assembled in the State Capital. A triumph over Salesian and wins thereafter transition that argument into fact, according to area coaches, retired and otherwise.

Sheldon won the NorCal Division I title last season over Jesuit (Carmichael) in a great showing of Sacramento muscle and achievement.

The Huskies returned the core group of San Diego State-bound leaders Dakarai Allen and D'Erryl Williams, along with Ryan Manning and Antonio Lewis. They seamlessly plugged Washington-bound guard Darin Johnson into the mix. Sheldon lost to Salesian 69-60 last month in a nonleague game set up by the coaches to gauge each other. Kudos to that.

Still, it wasn't the best showing for either club, nor was it for the 3-man officiating crew that often reduced the game to a crawl with 46 calls in 32 minutes. Bird stood out late with late-game efforts to win it. What also sticks out was Sheldon missing all 14 of its three-point shots, which is uncharacteristic for the Huskies, a fine-shooting team.

Sheldon is ready. It is hungry. So is Salesian, of course, but there's a deeper hunger here for the underdogs ready to pounce and bite. There isn't a more cohesive starting five in the state than Sheldon. That's not just my opinion — that's the view of state-wide media and coaches, too.

Sheldon makes some three-point shots this time. Williams has big down-the-stretch moments. Johnson and Allen reduce Bird from great to very, very good, which is enough to pull this off.

Also Tuesday, Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) takes on another Bay Area bruiser of national renown in De La Salle (Concord) in a NorCal D-I semifinal. Pleasant Grove lost three close games to Sheldon, its chief rival. The Eagles understand that to topple the Spartans is to take down tradition.

An Elk Grove Unified School District sweep by Sheldon and Pleasant Grove sheds a bit more light on Sacramento and the Section, which also includes Modesto Christian (Modesto). The Crusaders eliminated Bishop O'Dowd in an Open opener. A sign of things to come?

Why Salesian wins…

Mitch Stephens: (Enter long, slow clap like Detective Alonzo Harris, AKA Denzel Washington, in "Training Day.")

Nicely done JD. King Kong ain't got nothing on you. Way better than solid.

A beautiful soliloquy covering every base of all things past, present and future for Sheldon, the Sac-Joaquin Section, the Elk Grove Unified and even the Bay Area basketball. Salesian too.

Bravo.

But none of the back-story or history will mean peanuts come Tuesday night when a three-man referee crew tosses the leather up at McKeon Pavilion.

I don't buy that Sheldon has an ounce more hunger than Salesian or its passion runs any deeper. And for arguments sake, even if it was true, I wouldn't think it would be to the Huskies' advantage. Might only get them into foul trouble and/or cause them to be long on their jump shots.

I've only seen Sheldon three times in the last two years and your description and analysis, of course, is spot on. I really love their versatility and willingness to share the ball and athleticism and skill. It's really a thing of beauty when all in synch.

But Salesian's forte is causing mayhem. Its speed, quickness and defensive pressure — especially in the backcourt with 6-foot ball-hawking senior guards Mario Dunn (Montana signee) and Markel Leonard (Cal Poly) — could crack concrete. 

Besides that, I just can't pick against Salesian — especially Jabari Bird and Dunn. I've seen Dunn take over games multiple times when all else has failed for the Pride, the most crucial being in Salesian's 63-61 overtime win at Sheldon last season and the team's ugly but gritty 47-43 win over De La Salle at the Martin Luther King Classic.
In a game filled with long, skilled shooting guards, the 6-6 Cal-bound Bird appears to have an extra dimension, which he especially demonstrates on the big stage. He had 22 in the earlier win over Sheldon after being held scoreless in the first quarter. His four dunks punctuated the win. He had 24 and took over the game in a 70-56 win over Price (Los Angeles) in the state title game last season.

The key for Salesian is simply straight man defense — with a long bench to go with Dunn and Leonard, they have the athletes to do it.

"Sheldon gets to the rim so well," Salesian coach Bill Mellis said. "Our on-ball defense is absolutely the key. That and rebounding."

Jermaine Edmonds Jr., a 6-4 senior, has been shooting extremely well the last month and that's another huge plus for Salesian. Also look for 6-10 Jonathan Galloway, a transfer from Liberty, to play a pivotal role blocking shots and rebounding.

Like the Sheldon boys, the Salesian kids are chasing their own legacy, a second-straight state title, a third for the program in five years. More importantly, it's the first Open Division with all the top dogs, and taking home that prize would be the ultimate finish to a prep career.

There are six players — three on each — who have secured Division I rides and probably at least four other seniors who will play at the next level. The talent base is just about even. So it's which team will execute, make big shots, big free throws, not panic, seize the moment, just play better.

Few, if any, teams in Northern California have played a tougher schedule the last five seasons than Salesian, and during that time — on the court (they had to forfeit nine games in 2010-11) — the Pride is 162-15. I like that percentage and Salesian's chances Tuesday night.

But the only thing I can say for certain — and I think we can agree on this — on paper and in cyberspace, high school basketball games don't get much better than this.

(Enter more slow clapping here. Fade to black.)

Joe Davidson has covered high schools with The Sacramento Bee since 1988. Follow him on Twitter: @SacBee_JoeD; on Facebook: sacbeepreps. E-mail MaxPreps senior writer Mitch Stephens at mstephens@maxpreps.com or follow him on Twitter: @MitchMashMax.