The Charlie Weis era at Notre Dame appears to be drawing to a close.
With the Irish losing its fifth game of the season, a heartbreaking defeat at the hands UConn in overtime, rumors are swirling that Weis will be out as head coach in South Bend.
Nothing is official at this point, and it’s likely that Weis will at least finish out the season at the helm for the Irish. A change in Weis’ job status probably would have little effect on the playing field this season. With BCS Bowl hopes squashed, Notre Dame fans are looking ahead to the future and asking questions about the ramifications of axing Weis.
Just how much would firing Weis hurt Notre Dame’s recruiting in 2010 and beyond? The answer is probably not that much.
Notre Dame is somewhat unique when it comes to recruiting. Much of the school’s recruiting capital comes from its tradition and prestige. Its television contract with NBC, as well as its status as one of only two Catholic Division I FBS schools with a football program, also separate Notre Dame’s recruiting pitch from that of other top programs.
These factors motivate many of the recruits that Notre Dame lands each year. It’s what has allowed Notre Dame to harvest good recruiting classes despite disappointing seasons and persistent speculation about Weis’ job security.
Still, losing Weis will certainly send ripples through the recruiting circuit. For starters, Weis’ firing would likely mean the end of the Jimmy Clausen era in South Bend. Clausen is shooting up draft boards, and losing the only head coach he’s known in South Bend would hasten his departure.
That would open the signal-caller position for highly-touted Dayne Crist, who will be a junior. Current quarterback recruits Andrew Hendrix and Tommy Rees, recognizing opportunities to make early contributions, would probably honor their pledges.
Other recruits likely to stick with the Irish are athlete Tai-ler Jones, who is a Notre Dame legacy, and tight end Alex Welch, who hails from Greater Catholic League power Elder (Cincinnati, Ohio), the same high school as current Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph.
Catholic high schools in the Midwest have been extremely kind to Notre Dame in recent years. That connection is one reason why Hendrix and Welch are more likely than other recruits to remain with the Irish. It’s also a reason that Notre Dame is still in the mix for uncommitted stars like Cretin-Derham Hall (St. Paul, Minn.) tackle Seantrel Henderson and St. Xavier (Cincinnati, Ohio) tackle Matt James. 
Gio Bernard could be the answer for Notre Dame at
running back.
Photo by Todd Shurtleff
Giovanni Bernard, who hails from the nation’s No. 1 team, St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.), raved about his trip to Notre Dame and committed shortly thereafter. Given that Aquinas has been a minor pipeline to South Bend, there’s a good chance Bernard stays. He is an impact running back that Notre Dame sorely needs.
What effect the Weis firing has on his teammates (Brandon Linder, Lamarcus Joyner and Cody Riggs) remains to be seen.
However, not all recruits will stay with Notre Dame if Weis is not in the picture. Grandview (Colo.) star Chris Martin, who committed to Notre Dame in February, has repeatedly stated publicly that losing Weis will seriously make him reconsider his commitment. Martin would instantly become a hot commodity if he became available.
Undoubtedly, others also would look around, especially if Weis is ousted sooner rather than later. The longer Weis remains, the less likely recruits are to bolt, because open spots in other recruiting classes will become increasingly hard to find as National Signing Day approaches.
However, recruiting surprises happen all the time, so it’s impossible to precisely predict how the 2010 recruiting class will play out for the Irish. The exact effect that Weis’ departure would have on Notre Dame's 2011 targets is also somewhat nebulous, but will likely be minimal.
New hires often have a honeymoon effect shortly after taking over the reins at a new program. If Weis is replaced, whoever is hired will instantly be a hot topic across the country, getting his name, as well as the Notre Dame brand, into the consciousness of recruits everywhere.
In that case, losses in the 2010 class could turn into gains in the 2011 class — if not sooner. Lane Kiffin made up for Tennessee by National Signing Day on Feb. 4 after being hired on Dec. 1. A new head coach at Notre Dame could bring a renewed momentum to the team’s recruiting, attracting players previously untouched by Weis’ recruiting efforts.
One parent of a top recruit considering Notre Dame thought it'd be important to see who the school hired before writing off the Irish. "A lot of it depends on who they bring in, and how that coach runs the program," he said.
More than likely, whoever Notre Dame brings on board will have a track record of proven success on the collegiate level, and by extension, a history of recruiting victories. At the time of his hire, Weis possessed neither of these. That would offer Weis' replacement even more ammunition in attempts to lure top recruits to South Bend, suggesting that ultimately the Irish would not miss a beat on the recruiting trail by cutting ties with Weis.
