Key Colorado football games could sway RPI in final weeks

By Paul Willis Oct 28, 2016, 9:00am

For some, who they play might be more important than winning

Video: Ethan Leisge highlights
Watch the Cherokee Trail QB in action earlier this season against Rock Canyon.

As the regular season winds down, football teams are clamoring to finish atop their leagues and polish their standing in the RPI. Not necessarily in that order.

The league winners in each classification are granted a playoff berth. For those that don't have that luxury, a wild-card entry via the RPI is the lone option. We'll examine a few games that could be make-or-break for teams in that respect, with the general idea to finish in the top 16.

The exception would be if a league winner finishes outside the top 16, which further convolutes the picture. We'll take a look at a few of the biggest oddities generated by the format as well.



In Class 5A, Friday night's Cherokee Trail (Aurora) at Mountain Vista (Highlands Ranch) contest could essentially be for a playoff spot. Cherokee Trail enters No. 18 in the RPI and Mountain Vista sits at No. 15. This one could come down to the passing game, as each team's quarterback has been extremely efficient. Cherokee Trail's Ethan Leisge has thrown for seven touchdowns and only one interception, while Mountain Vista's Judd Erickson has been one of the state's prolific passers with 2,430 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

In addition, ThunderRidge (Highlands Ranch) (4-4) sits at No. 17, but could the Grizzlies win for losing? They finish the regular season against Mullen (Denver) and Columbine (Littleton) – Nos. 3 and 7 in the RPI – and even with a loss, ThunderRidge conceivably could move up because winning percentage of opponents is factored heavily in the mix. Could that allow them to jump a team such as No. 13 Fairview (Boulder), even if the Knights close strong? Fairview defeated No. 39 Northglenn on Thursday night and finishes against No. 37 Mountain Range (Westminster).

In 4A, a look ahead to next week reveals an interesting one. No. 12 Rampart (Colorado Springs) and No. 16 Vista Ridge (Colorado Springs) sit atop the Pikes Peak League at 3-0. If each wins this week, the finale between the teams on Nov. 4 will serve as a straight-up league title game. But with each so close to the precipice, the loser could be out entirely.

Another oddity in 4A is that Greeley West has Broomfield head-to-head and leads the Eagles by a game in the Longs Peak League. Yet Broomfield sits No. 2 in the RPI and Greeley West at No. 15, hastening the need for the Spartans to win the league outright.

Also, Wheat Ridge is 3-5 but currently stationed at No. 13, as the Farmers' strength of schedule has been No. 1 to this point (opponents have a combined .648 winning percentage). Last season's runner-up Loveland, meanwhile, is 7-1 but sits at No. 20 due to playing the No. 40 strength of schedule (.283 winning percentage).

In 3A, No. 18 Conifer is in good position to move into the playoff picture. The Lobos close with No. 14 Lutheran (Parker) this week and No. 15 Skyview (Thornton) next week, with the latter possibly a win-and-you're-in game depending on other results. The Lobos are 7-1 and quarterback Matt Aceto has thrown for 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions, but they might have to keep on winning to crack the bracket.



It's conceivable that Conifer could miss the postseason with a 7-3 or 8-2 record while Roosevelt (Johnstown) could make it in at 4-6. Currently 3-5, the Roughriders close against No. 7 Holy Family (Broomfield) next week, which will give their strength of schedule another boost after taking on Frederick this week.

In 2A, which features a nine-game regular season, Eaton and Resurrection Christian (Loveland) meet Friday night with supremacy in the Patriot League – West on the line. Resurrection Christian (8-0) is No. 2 in the RPI and will land a postseason berth either way, but No. 19 Eaton (6-2) might benefit simply by playing in the game and boosting its strength of schedule. That being said, the Reds know their lone postseason guarantee is to win the game.

Alamosa is in a similar situation as the Mean Moose are sitting at No. 16, but will have the benefit of closing tonight at No. 7 Bayfield. A win and Alamosa is in, but the Mean Moose will also benefit from playing the quality opponent.

In 1A, the Nos. 15-17 teams are all 4-4 and it will be compelling to see how it sorts out. No. 15 Monte Vista plays the most winnable game (vs. No. 35 Dolores), but No. 16 Olathe might be in the best situation. The Pirates take on No. 1 Meeker and will benefit from the strength-of-schedule boost. No. 17 Rye opposes No. 12 Buena Vista, which could give the Thunderbolts a mild boost. The oddity here is that the team most likely to win could be in the most trouble.

Even 8-Man has its drama, as No. 15 Soroco (Oak Creek) and No. 16 Simla play lower-rated teams and will be sweating out the final week as teams attempt to overthrow them. The 6-Man classification begins its playoffs this week.