MaxPreps Top 25 preseason high school girls basketball rankings

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Preseason rankings are perilous it best, and in high school girls basketball, the chances for serious blunders are even more likely. The reasons? Injuries can change everything in a heartbeat, consistency even among the best teams is conspicuous in its absence, and it only takes a couple of unexpected stars to emerge for a school to appear from out of nowhere.

In addition, some teams either can't or won't play an intersectional schedule, and will find themselves with only a few challenging games all season. On the flipside, there are teams like Archbishop Mitty, Riverdale Baptist, and Long Beach Poly that go out of their way to face the best opposition they can find. These teams actually start higher in the preseason rankings because if they are successful against that kind of quality competition, they deserve to be ranked highly – and even if they lose a game here or there (out of 10 elite opponents, say), they shouldn't drop too far.

On the other hand, there are teams whose season will be defined by just a handful of games, and therefore the margin for error is much smaller. And by the same token, only playing four teams that have a chance to beat you means you only have four chances to prove how good you are.

But barring the fantasy of a postseason tournament involving all of the top teams, there's really no way to know for sure which team is the best in the nation – and the situation is even murkier deeper in the rankings. Who can really say that No. 21 is better than No. 25, or No. 19 is worse than No. 21?

So enjoy these weekly rankings for what they are, a deeply researched and highly educated guess – and then go out and enjoy watching your local teams play, no matter how good or bad they might be.

(Note: We urge all teams, not just those in the Xcellent 25, to make sure their rosters and schedules are up-to-date on MaxPreps. This allows parents, fans, media and college coaches easy access to what they need to know. Problems? Contact coachsupport@maxpreps.com.)

1. Paul VI (Fairfax, Va.), 33-1 (2015-16 record)
This year the "VI" of Paul VI also stands for the six Power 5 junior/senior recruits – plus five more Division I-level players just in case. Juniors Honesty Scott-Grayson (a transfer from Riverdale Baptist) and Amira Collins are two of the many elite talents, as is sophomore Ashley Owusu. Last year's only loss was to Our Lady of Good Counsel, by two, and in the tough Washington Catholic Athletic Conference, there are no gimmes – but the overall schedule isn't quite as tough as some other teams in the Xcellent 25.

2. Archbishop Mitty (San Jose, Calif.), 23-4
Sue Phillips has won six state championships (one with Kerri Walsh at the post) but she says this could be her best team – which is a scary thought. Mitty is tall, talented (four Division I seniors plus an elite underclass group) and will play the toughest schedule in the country. If Phillips and company can run the table against this level of competition, they will have clearly proven themselves the best in the nation.

3. Riverdale (Murfreesboro, Tenn.), 32-4
Those four losses all came early, and once the train started rolling, it didn't stop until Riverdale won its fifth state title. Senior Anastasia Hayes ( Tennessee), junior Brinae Alexander (5-10 small forward with multiple Power 5 offers) and twin junior wings Alexis and Amanda Whittington (both committed to Middle Tennessee) will lead the way through the usual challenging schedule.

4. St. Francis (Alpharetta, Ga.), 31-2
Yes, St. Francis is just a 1A school in Georgia, but coming off three state titles in the past four years, with four Division I seniors (Kasiyahna Kushkituah, Tennessee; Maya Dodson, Stanford; Taja Cummings, Georgia Tech; and Nichel Tampa, Western Kentucky) and two more Division I prospects (Arynn Eady, junior, and Amirah Abur-Rahim, freshman), in this case, size doesn't really matter that much.

5. Hamilton Heights Christian Academy (Chattanooga, Tenn.), 29-5
Hamilton Heights spent some time in the rankings last year, and with only one senior starter – who's surrounded by three Power 5 prospects in juniors Jazmine Massengill, Elizabeth Balogun and freshman Treasure Hunt (coach Keisha Hunt's daughter) – get used to the name. And intriguing 6-6 Brazilian sophomore Kamilla Soares could make an impact sooner rather than later.

6. Riverdale Baptist (Upper Marlboro, Md.), 36-3
Riverdale Baptist lost Honesty Scott-Grayson to No. 1 Paul VI, but wound up with 6-5 Rochelle Norris instead, who spent last year at PVI. Senior Chanel Belton runs the show, while sophomore Cali Konek supplies the outside shooting and 6-6 Evan Beasley works the paint. And as always, Riverdale Baptist plays a murderous schedule.

7. Centennial (Las Vegas, Nev.), 31-1
Centennial won its eighth Nevada title last year and lost just once, but lost a lot to graduation – though there's still plenty of talent. That talent will be tested by another tough schedule that includes games against No. 1 Paul VI, California powers St. Mary's of Stockton and Clovis West, and the annual trip to the Nike TOC.

8. Long Beach Poly (Calif.), 27-5
One of the great prep athletic powerhouses – in all sports – will keep rolling in girls' basketball this year, as Carl Buggs welcomes back a Queen Mary-full of talent, starting with seniors Jasmine Jones and Danae Miller. And as usual, the Jackrabbits will play an extremely tough schedule as well as facing the California Open Division postseason gantlet.

9. Miami Country Day (Miami, Fla.), 26-6
Coaches love seniors, and they especially love quality senior guards -- and Miami Country Day has Channise Lewis (Illinois) and shooting guard Kelsey Marshall (Miami of Florida) to help deal with a difficult schedule that includes the Nike TOC in Arizona and the Naples Holiday Shootout (across the Everglades).

10. National Christian Academy (Fort Washington, Md.), 27-4
Yet another DMV powerhouse, National Christian, like Miami Country Day, will rely on a pair of senior guards to navigate a challenging slate of games. Mykea Gray ( Miami of Florida) and Olivia Martino (Lafayette) are seasoned veterans but the best player on the team just might be Olivia's younger sister, freshman Elizabeth Martino.

11. St. Rose (Belmar, N.J.), 25-5
The bloom is on St. Rose this season, and most likely next, as two of the five Division I-bound players are juniors: point guard Mikayla Markham (committed to Columbia) and forward Elizabeth Marsicano (6-2, committed to St. Joseph's). St. Rose will see some intersectional competition in the Diamond State Classic in Delaware in December and then travels to Ohio in January to face a strong Lakota West team at the Classic in the Country.

12. Montini (Lombard, Ill.), (31-3)
Some say Illinois is a little down this year, but Montini's top eight all have Division I offers in hand. Signed seniors include small forward Kaylee Bambule (Ohio University), guard Nikki Oppenheimer (Syracuse) and point guard Claudia Kunzer (South Dakota), and though the schedule isn't as difficult as that of many teams higher in the rankings, Montini is taking two out-of-state trips.

13. Monacan (Richmond, Va.), 29-1
It helps to start with the consensus best player in the nation, senior guard Megan Walker (UConn), but it doesn't stop there for Monacan. Seniors Jaiden Morris (Rider) and Alex Parson (Richmond) will also play key roles. Given the talent level and last year's success, Monacan is taking on the challenge of "She Got Game!" in D.C. and the CresCom Bank Holiday Invitational in South Carolina.

14. Ribault (Jacksonville, Fla.), 30-1
Ribault is a long-time power in Florida (11 state championships, and last year added the trophy at the Dick's Sporting Goods National High School Tournament. Seniors Rennia Davis (Tennessee) and Day'Neshia Banks (Ole Miss) return to anchor a solid lineup, but Ribault's schedule is far from rigorous – though a matchup with No. 9 Miami Country Day is on tap after Thanksgiving.

15. Cardinal O'Hara (Springfield, Pa.), 22-4
Seniors Mary Sheehan (St. Joseph's) and Hannah Nihill (Drexel) highlight a roster that returns all the firepower from the team that lost in the Pennsylvania state title game. Juniors Maura Hendrixson and Mackenzie Gardler are also Division I players, and veteran coach Linus McGinty has O'Hara going to the Nike TOC to get ready for another championship run.

16. Duncanville (Texas), 39-0
Duncanville is the standard by which Texas programs are measured: Cathy Self-Morgan has won three of the last five titles in the state's largest division, and after leading No. 19 Mansfield Timberview by 20+ points en route to a 14-point win, has established itself as the favorite once again. Yes, Mansfield Timberview won the first meeting, but that was just by one, in overtime.

17. Wayne (Huber Heights, Ohio), 25-2
Power 5 prospects junior Shai McGruder and sophomore Destiny Bohanon led Wayne to the Final Four last year (the school's first-ever visit), and the team looks to be Ohio's best this season. While there's no out-of-state travel, Wayne will play Indiana power Homestead at the Classic in the Country.

18. Manasquan (N.J.), 28-7
All five starters return from a team that lost the New Jersey Tournament of Champions – which matches the best public and private schools regardless of enrollment – in double overtime, so expectations are high. Junior guard Dara Mabrey (whose two sisters have played at Notre Dame) and sophomore forward Faith Masonius are the most highly regarded of the quintet, but there's lots of talent. The schedule is highlighted by a December trip to the KSA at Florida's Disney World and a New Jersey faceoff with No. 11 St. Rose in February.

19. Mansfield Timberview (Arlington, Texas), 33-1
After starting the season with a one-point win at Duncanville – led by junior all-everything Chennedy Carter – Mansfield Timberview stumbled in the rematch. Still, that's a split with the team most consider the best in Texas, and though Mansfield Timberview won't travel, a spot in the Xcellent 25 has been earned.

20. Butler (Louisville, Ky.), 31-6
Jaelynn Penn (Indiana) leads a veteran lineup that will defend its state championship – and note that all teams in Kentucky are thrown into the same postseason bracket. Janna Lewis (Tennessee State) is the only other signee, but Tasia Jeffries and Teri Goodlett are Division I-caliber as well. The big out-of-state game will be against No. 12 Montini in January.

21. Grandview (Aurora, Colo.), 26-1
Michaela Onyenwere (UCLA) has already been Colorado's player of the year twice, but she's yet to win a state championship. This could be the year, as all the other key pieces of the puzzle return – though the fact that none averaged 10 ppg is a concern. Much will be revealed at the Nike TOC.

22. Ossining (N.Y.), 28-2
Andra Espinoza-Hunter (UConn) is a senior transfer from Blair Academy in New Jersey, and though graduation and injuries will have a definite impact, Ossining still pencils out as New York's best. That said, there are several other quality teams in the Empire State, and Ossining's road will not be smooth.

23. Millbrook (Raleigh, N.C.), 30-2
Millbrook has won three of the past four 4A titles, but last year's trophy hoist required a last-second putback by 5-9 Kai Crutchfield (North Carolina State). Four other college-bound seniors join Crutchfield, and veteran coach Chris East has scheduled games against No. 1 Paul VI and No. 6 Riverdale Baptist to prepare the team for yet another title chase.

24. Ursuline Academy (New Orleans, La.), 29-6
An all-underclass starting lineup led by Power 5 junior prospects Brooklyn Mitchell and Kourtney Weber should be Louisiana's best, but because this year the state will split not only into enrollment divisions, but public and private as well, Ursuline won't get to prove it on the court. A late December trip to the KSA Tournament at Florida's Disney World, though, will be a big test.

25. Central Valley (Spokane Valley, Wash.), 28-0
The Hull twins, Lexie Hull and Lacie Hull, return for the defending 4A champions, and as both have already committed to Stanford, that's a pair of aces to build a winning hand around. Central Valley's biggest problem, however, is that schedule limitations prevent the Spokane-area school from having a chance to prove itself against any out-of-state competition. Look for Central Valley to roll through its competition in Washington, but we'll never really know how good the team is.