Comparing high school football scoring rates from state to state

The cliche says that everything is bigger down in Texas, and football point totals from the Lone Star State certainly fit the saying.

Texas produced the highest-scoring football games in the country last year on average, as teams combined to average 55.48 points per game. The total is more than 1.5 points greater than the next state, Arizona, which saw its teams combine for 53.93 points per game.

Boasting top-notch coaches, elite athletes and numerous noteworthy spread offenses, Texas played host to many storylines about elite offenses this past fall.

Aledo (Texas), which captured a Class 4A-II state title, became the first team in history to top the 1,000-point mark, finishing with an astonishing 1,023 points, including 91 in a single game. Refugio (Texas) (55.9), DeSoto (Texas) (52.1), and Allen (Texas) (50.4) also drew national attention thanks to their prodigious offensive outputs.

All four run variations of a spread offense.

Joey McGuire, whose Cedar Hill (Texas) squad averaged 36 points per game en route to a Class 5A-II title in 2013, believes that’s no coincidence.

“In the state of Texas, the spread offense has changed football so much,” he said. “You have more and more people in the spread offense, putting athletes in space.”

As more of Cedar Hill’s opponents also move to the spread, McGuire said he no longer pays much attention to how many yards per game his defense is allowing and instead is just focused on total points his team is allowing. Because so many Texas schools are moving to the more wide-open style of offense, McGuire believes that teams that run more conventional sets now have a certain advantage: Defenses so rarely have to defend against traditional, I-formation offenses that they fall into matchup problems.

One such team, Katy (Texas), rushed for 173 yards and scored 24 points against Cedar Hill in the 5A-II title game.

Whether spread or I-formation, Texas definitely leads the way in scoring.

College trickle-down?
Following Texas are Arizona (53.93) Oregon (53.85), Nevada (53.74) and West Virginia (53.48), all states that feature progressive, innovative offenses at their respective in-state universities.

Arkansas, where Gus Malzahn perfected his spread offense in the high school coaching ranks, is just outside the top 10 at 52.46 points per game.

Most states in Big 12 or Pac-12 territory, including Oklahoma (seventh at 52.46) and Kansas (21st at 51.21) finished in the top half of states, suggesting some correlation between the offensive approaches at the high school level and the college game.

States in SEC territory produce fewer points the farther south they are found. Kentucky and Missouri are both in the top 10, both averaging more than 52 points. South Carolina is not too far behind. From there, the defenses seem to intensify as you go down the map.

Louisiana is the first southern state to fall below the 50-point mark, turning in an average of 49.46 points. Georgia produced 48.83 points; Florida, a relatively paltry 48.56.

Point totals plummet in the Northeast, where the weather is colder and many perceive offensive philosophies to be more focused on the ground game.

Five of the bottom 10 states are located in the Northeast, not including Maryland (45.33) and Washington, D.C., which is dead last at just more than 43 points per game.

Delaware, famous for the proliferation of the Wing-T offense, checks in just behind Maryland.

The outlier of the group is Connecticut, where teams averaged a combined 52.31 points per game.

A combination of factors
A number of different elements clearly are in play, as no single factor correlates perfectly.

Hawaii, with its passing-friendly climate and history of a spread offense at the college level, ranks near the bottom of the list. Meanwhile, fellow non-contiguous state Alaska, which occasionally has to watch for polar bears during games in its icy climate, produced the 14th-most points per game at 52.25.

Ohio and Indiana, in the heart of the Midwest and Big Ten country, rank eighth and 17th, respectively.

There appears to be little correlation between talent and offensive production, since top talent-producers appear on both ends of the list, as do states that typically produce few, if any, Division I players.

Mercy rules, which typically come into play when one team has a lead of 35 points or more in the second half, vary in different states, as the National Federation of High School Associations allows state governing bodies to determine a rule that works for their states.

In some states, a 35-point deficit will automatically trigger a running clock, leading to a quicker game and, most likely, fewer points. Elsewhere, losing coaches can choose to continue playing with a normal clock.

Notes on the data
- Data come from more than 77,000 games in MaxPreps database for the 2013 season and feature only 11-man football results.
- Interstate competitions were not specially accounted for, but represent only a small fraction of all games played.
- Larger states offered much greater samples; data for those may be more reliable.
- While MaxPreps strives for statistical accuracy, any incorrect, fan-submitted scores slightly skew results.