Ohio High School Football Division III State Final Preview: Who Wins?

Who wins in Week 15? Man versus machine wraps this week. For the past eight years I've picked Ohio high school postseason games against Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 formula. And I've done well. This season we again added Need Freeman's CalPreps picks into the mix. And this week we're adding even more! We extended an invite to several Ohio prep experts/personalities and solicited their picks for the state finals. Glad they obliged. This is a new wrinkle we added last season and this year we are pleased to continue. The insight is appreciated.

As for last week? I won with a 12-2 record. Both the Fantastic50 and CalPreps went 11-3. Overall, the Fan50 and CalPreps are tied with 159 total playoff picks right. I'm bringing up the rear at 152.

Below is a comprehensive look at who each of us - and our pool of guest pickers - thinks wins the D-III state title. I've also listed names expected to affect the outcome.

Best of luck to all involved. The State Finals have arrived.

Division III State Championship Preview

Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (13-1/No. 3 MaxPreps/No. 1 AP) vs Kenston (Chagrin Falls) (13-1/No. 8 MaxPreps/No. 4 AP)

When: Friday at 3:00 p.m., Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium (Canton)

Players to Watch:

* Antwann Martin, Alter, jr. DB: First team All-Ohio defender has 88 tackles.

* Connor Meyer, Alter, sr. DL: Second team All-Ohio selection has 87 tackles.

* Connor Bazelak, Alter, sr. QB: Missouri recruit and third team All-Ohio signal caller has thrown for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns. Has also rushed for seven scores. “Arm strength, release, accuracy, footwork,” Alter head coach Ed Domsitz said. “He has all the attributes you are looking for in a big-time QB.”

* Nathaniel "Cookie" Armstrong , Alter, sr., LB: Won WHIO TV’s trench team MVP (given to the Miami Valley’s top senior inside player/lineman). Has 70 tackles. Also had knee scoped two weeks ago but played every defensive snap in the Knights 34-13 state semifinal win over Norwalk.

* Branden McDonald, Alter, so., RB: Has emerged as workhorse with 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns on 180 carries.

* Derek Willits, Alter, sr., WR: Big target has 22 catches for 449 yards and six touchdowns.

* Jon Tomcufcik, Kenston, jr., QB: First team All-Ohio selection has thrown for 2,747 yards and 24 touchdowns.  Has rushed for 501 yards and 14 touchdowns.

* Jack Porter, Kenston, jr., RB: First team All-Ohio back has rushed for 2,299 yards and 29 touchdowns. Averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

* Alex Robarge, Kenston, sr., OL: First team All-Ohio.

* Bransen Stanley, Kenston, sr., WR: Second team All-Ohio honoree has caught 58 passes for 975 yards and nine touchdowns.

* Nick Franklin, Kenston, sr., DB: Second team All-Ohio has registered 36 tackles and six TFL.

* Matthew Iklodi, Kenston, sr., LB: Third team All-Ohio defender has 139 tackles, 15 TFL, nine fumble recoveries, four forced fumbles and two interceptions.

* Tyler Mintz, Kenston, sr., WR: Has caught 49 passes for 794 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Predictions:

Eric Frantz (MaxPreps, @EFrantzMP)
Both teams agree line play is the key. “When I look at any team the first thing I look at is the OL and DL to see how tough the opponent will be,” Domstiz said. “This team is solid and it’s going to be a challenge. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses. The offensive line is impressive.” Echoed Kenston head coach Jeff Grubich: “To get to this level you have to have a great OL and DL. Games are won in the trenches. They have no weaknesses what so ever. We have a huge test in front of us.” The Knights rely on a balanced offense featuring a 1,500-yard back and a quarterback headed to the SEC. Defensively, Alter has allowed 32 points in four playoff games. Kenston hasn’t scored less than 33 points in any playoff game. The Bombers domination of Eastmoor and Canfield in consecutive weeks commands respect (outscored 73-14 combined). "They are better than anything we’ve seen this year,” Domstiz said. “And you would expect that with this being the state finals.” Said Grubich: “Same message we’ve had for 14 weeks – focus on ourselves and strive to get better. We do that, I’ll take our chances.” Me too Grube. The Bombers win with offensive efficiency and ball security. Kenston 24, Alter 20.

Fantastic 50.com
Chagrin Falls Kenston (13-1 D3 R9) by 1 (53%) neu Kettering Archbishop Alter (13-1 D3 R12)

CalPreps.com
Alter 28-21

Lee Cochran (Managing Editor, This Week Community News, @TWLeeCochran)
Although winners of only two state titles, Alter is a tournament veteran and that experience pays off one more time. Alter 28-24.

Steve Blackledge (Prep Writer, Columbus Dispatch, OPSWA HOF, @BlackiePreps)
The old adage suggests that a tough defense has an advantage over an explosive offense. High school football has changed a lot through the years, but I suspect that Alter coach Ed Domsitz will find a way to control Kenston's read option. Alter 24, Kenston 20.

Steve Helwagen (Writer, 247sports.com, @SteveHelwagen)
Alter bags its third playoff state title. Alter 34, Kenston 20.

Tim Rogers (Freelance Writer, GateHouse Media, OPSWA HOF, @TimRogersCLE):
Both top-ranked Kettering Alter and fourth-ranked Kenston showed prolific offenses during the regular season. Alter slowed down once the playoffs started and was nearly upset in the first round by 5-5 Mount Healthy. Meanwhile, Kenston knocked off region computer champ Canfield, 33-7. Hard to ignore the Bombers. They win 28-18.

Seth Staskey (Sports Editor, The Times Leader, @TLSportsSeth)
Kettering Alter has done it with defense all season and that will be needed against Chagrin Falls Kenston, which has been held under 30 points just twice all season. Kenston's win over Eastmoor Academy was impressive last week. So, what's going to give? The cliche says, 'defense wins championships.' Alter wins 27-14.

Mark Porter (Owner, ScoutingOhio.com, @Mark__Porter)
Alter.

Thomas Wilson (Sports Writer, Lancaster Eagle-Gazette, @twil2323)
I like Alter in this one, 21-14.

Gary Housteau (Photographer, Bucknuts.com, @garyhouse2)
It’s good to see Alter battling for a state championship once again and I’ll go with their history over the prolific offense of Kenston. Alter wins.

Kurt Stubbbs (Contributor, MaxPreps, @ohiohshoops)
This may be one of the more interesting games of the weekend. The Kenston Bombers won its first eight games of the year before falling (27-24) in week nine. The Bombers have scored 40 or more points every game since with the exception of a (33-7) win over Canfield in the regional final. Alter lost its opener to Division I Kettering Fairmont and hasn’t fallen since. Alter’s defense has been extremely stingy all season, and quarterback Connor Bazelak (Missouri commit) and sophomore running back Branden McDonald are a big time one-two combo. I like Alter in this game, because of its defense, 24-7.

EF Picks 2017: 6-1 (86%)

EF Picks 2016: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2015: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2014: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2013: 4-3 (57%)
EF Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
EF Picks 2011: 3-3 (50%)
EF Picks 2010: 4-2 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 5-2 (71%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 4-3 (57%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 4-3 (57%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 3-4 (43%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: N/A

CalPreps Picks 2016: 4-3 (57%)

State Semifinal History

EF Picks 2018: 12-2 (86%)

EF Picks 2017: 13-1 (93%)
EF Picks 2016: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2015: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2014: 13-1 (93%)
EF Picks 2013: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2012: 7-5 (58%)
EF Picks 2011: 9-3 (75%)
EF Picks 2010: 8-4 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 11-3 (79%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 13-1 (93%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 10-4 (71%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 7-5 (58%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 11-3 (79%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 11-3 (79%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 10-4 (71%)

Regional Final History

EF Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

EF Picks 2017: 21-7 (75%)
EF Picks 2016: 23-5 (82%)
EF Picks 2015: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2014: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2013: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2012: 16-8 (67%)
EF Picks 2011: 20-4 (83%)
EF Picks 2010: 17-7 (71%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 21-7 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 21-7 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 23-5 (82%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 22-6 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 25-3 (89%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 19-5 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 18-6 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 16-8 (67%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 20-8 (71%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 19-9 (68%)

Regional Semifinal History

EF Picks 2018: 39-17 (70%)

EF Picks 2017: 46-10 (82%)
EF Picks 2016: 43-13 (77%)
EF Picks 2015: 43-13 (77%)
EF Picks 2014: 44-12 (79%)
EF Picks 2013: 40-16 (71%)
EF Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
EF Picks 2011: 31-17 (65%)
EF Picks 2010: 35-13 (73%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 42-14 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 45-11 (80%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 42-14 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 45-11 (80%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 42-14 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 41-15 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 35-13 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 37-11 (77%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 44-12 (79%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 45-11 (80%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 43-13 (77%)

Regional Quarterfinal History

EF Picks 2018: 84-28 (75%)

EF Picks 2017: 92-20 (82%)
EF Picks 2016: 87-25 (78%)
EF Picks 2015: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2013: 93-19 (83%)
EF Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
EF Picks 2011: 76-20 (79%)
EF Picks 2010: 72-24 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 89-23 (79%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 91-21 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 91-21 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 89-23 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 89-23 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 82-14 (85%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 77-19 (80%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 86-26 (77%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 92-20 (82%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 94-18 (84%)