Examining potential bracket-busters in Colorado 5A girls basketball

If we've learned anything over the years in the big-school classification of girls basketball, it's that the power is concentrated at the top. Suggesting any team outside of the top two seeds could win it all would sound conspiratorial, up there with alien sightings and the like.

But that doesn't mean a lower seed can't make some noise in the bracket and weave its way to the Sweet 16 or, in a rare case, the quarterfinals. While the Class 5A favorites are well documented, here is a look at a few dark horses that have the potential to make a run. To be eligible for dark-horse status, a team must be a No. 5 seed or lower, meaning it is not one of the 16 squads that received a first-round bye.

To be clear, this is not a prediction that each respective team will go deep, but more an outline of how it could happen. With that in mind, here is a region-by-region look at potential bracket-busters.

Kay Garms Region
If No. 6 Mountain Vista (Highlands Ranch) is on its game, the Golden Eagles could be primed to shake things up a bit. Having weathered the rugged Continental League, the state's toughest, the Golden Eagles (14-9) should be able to dispatch a seven-win Chatfield (Littleton) squad that barely sneaked in at No. 11. Next up would be third-seeded Cherry Creek (Greenwood Village), which, make no mistake, is solid. But the Bruins played second fiddle to Grandview (Aurora) in the Centennial League, and not many other teams from the league provided an upper-echelon type of scare.

If Chelsea Pearson (16.5 scoring average) and Mountain Vista are fortunate enough to get past that one, odds are No. 2 Poudre (Fort Collins) would be looming in the Sweet 16. The teams met in the regular season with the Impalas triumphing 60-48, but Mountain Vista outscored Poudre 26-25 after intermission and had a terrible second quarter to blame for the loss. Count on coach Mike Willahan to have some key adjustments in place if this matchup comes to light.

Alice Barron Region
After finishing third in the nation two seasons ago, Regis Jesuit (Aurora) has cooled off a bit the past two seasons. It still seems odd to label the Raiders a dark horse considering their overall state profile over the past decade, but that's what they are as a No. 5 seed. Like Mountain Vista, Regis (15-8) competes in the elite Continental League, but the Raiders also take part in several high-profile tournaments, including the Nike Tournament of Champions in Phoenix and another in St. Louis.

The Raiders begin Tuesday with No. 12 Westminster and, with a win, would advance to face Rampart (Colorado Springs). The Rams (18-5) have had a fantastic season, but the Colorado Springs Metro League isn't nearly as stout as the Continental, so Regis Jesuit and top scorer Taekenya Cleveland would have a fighting chance against the Rams. Then ante then would be tremendously raised for Carl Mattei's group, which would likely have to upset top-seeded Lakewood in the Sweet 16 to nab a spot in the quarters.

Rhonda Blanford-Green Region
For awhile, Rocky Mountain (Fort Collins) was in the rankings and a threat to finish second to Broomfield in the Front Range League. The Lobos (17-6) eventually settled for a No. 6 seed, which seems a bit low for a squad with their record. Rocky Mountain doesn't have a go-to scorer – Sara Jones averages a team-best 10.7 points – but that means opponents can't choose someone to lock down on.

The Lobos open with No. 11 Columbine (Littleton), and with a win would move on to play No. 3 Doherty (Colorado Springs). The Spartans have been solid, but are not altogether unlike Rocky Mountain and even enter the tournament with the same record. If Rocky was able to skate past Doherty, things would get pronouncedly tougher with No. 2 Ralston Valley (Arvada) (20-3) likely looming next. But if the Lobos come in on a role and with a 19-6 record intact, who's to say they couldn't put up a fight?

Sharon Wilch Region
Cherokee Trail (Aurora) quietly had a solid season while toiling in the shadow of unbeaten Grandview and Top 10 squad Cherry Creek in the Centennial League. The Cougars finished 14-9 and gave Grandview a scare by coming within 65-58 earlier this month. The Cougars check in at No. 6 and are a heavy favorite to defeat Aurora-rival Gateway (Aurora) in the first round.

The Cougars then would move on to face No. 4 Pine Creek (Colorado Springs). The Eagles have been awesome and finished the season on a 16-1 burst to win the CSML, but their one loss in that span was to Rampart – a team that is similar to Cherokee Trail pace-wise. To be clear, this would be a huge upset, but it's not unfeasible if Jaleesa Avery (16.9 points a game) gets hot. If the Cougars are able to win the first two, their underdog status would rise dramatically. Odds are, No. 2 Horizon (Thornton) would be next up in the Sweet 16.