Sac-Joaquin Section football projections: Oct. 27

We are down to two weeks left in the regular season. It's starting to become clear who will be in and who will be out of the playoffs come November 13.

However, there is still football to be played and teams still fighting to get in.

*Note: These are just projections and nothing is final until official brackets are released by the Sac-Joaquin Section. We will update our projections each week.

Early Brackets
Brackets are ordered by number of wins

Division I
Folsom (SFL) - 8 - 2,179 (MUST BE D-I)
Elk Grove (Delta) - 8 - 1,866
Napa (MEL) - 8 - 2,093
Oak Ridge (SFL) - 8 - 2,408
Kennedy (METRO) - 7 - 2,141
St. Mary's (TCAL) - 6 - 907
Turlock (CCC) - 6 - 2,220
Modesto (MMC) - 6 - 2,392
Merced (CCC) - 5 - 1,991
Cosumnes Oaks (CVC) - 5 - 2,148
Gregori (MMC) - 5 - 2,207
Chavez (SJAA) - 5 - 2,484
Franklin (DELTA) - 5 - 2,768
Lincoln (S) TCAL) - 5 - 2,928
Stagg (SJAA) - 4 - 2,000
Pleasant Grove (DELTA) - 4 - 2,596

Division II
Antelope (CVC) - 8 - 1,800
Grant (Delta) - 7 - 1,897 (NO LOWER THAN D-II)
Wood (MEL) - 7 - 1,606 (NO LOWER THAN D-II)
Whitney (CVC) - 6 - 1,926
Downey (MMC) - 6 - 1,909
McNair (SJAA) - 6 - 1,647 (NO LOWER THAN D-II)
Pitman (CCC) - 5 - 2,140
Jesuit (DELTA) - 5 - 2,128
Granite Bay (SFL) - 5 - 2,084
Vintage (MEL) - 5 - 1,958
Rocklin (SFL) - 5 - 1,841
Burbank (METRO) - 5 - 1,778
Benicia (SCAC) - 5 - 1,690
Sacramento (METRO) - 5 - 985
Vacaville (MEL) - 4 - 1,924
Beyer (MMC) - 4 - 1,753

Division III
Inderkum (TCC) - 8 - 1,734
Patterson (WAC) - 8 - 1,722
Oakdale (VOL) - 8 - 1,637 (NO LOWER THAN D-III)
Central Catholic - 8 - 369 (NO LOWER THAN D-III)
River Valley (TCC) - 7 - 1,721
Mateca (VOL) - 7 - 1,503
Christian Brothers (CAL) - 7 - 1,074 (NO LOWER THAN D-III)
Del Campo (CVC) - 6 - 1,836
Vista del Lago (CAL) - 6 - 1,514
Central Valley (WAC) - 5 - 1,684
Lincoln (L) (PVL) - 5 - 1,656
Vanden (SCAC) - 5 - 1,599
El Camino (CAL) - 5 - 1,592
Fairfield (SCAC) - 5 - 1,486 (NO LOWER THAN D-III)
Yuba City (TCC) - 3 - 1,777
American Canyon (SCC) - 3 - 1,586

DIV
Placer (PVL) - 8 - 1,360
Sonora (MLL) - 8 - 979
Dixon (GEL) - 7 - 1,163
Los Banos (WAC) - 6 - 1,320
Rosemont (SVC) - 5 - 1,376
Calaveras (MLL) - 5 - 1,063
Union Mine (SVC) - 5 - 1,029
Liberty Ranch (SVC) - 4 - 1,189

Division V
Orestimba (SL) - 8 - 783
Capital Christian (GEL) - 8 - 406
Marysville (GEL) - 7 - 902
Bear River (PVL) - 7 - 711 (NO LOWER THAN D-V)
Highlands (SDL) - 5 - 900
Ripon (TVL) - 5 - 896
Delhi (SL) - 5 - 729
Modesto Christian (TVL) - 3 - 160 (NO LOWER THAN D-V)

Division VI
Gustine (SL) - 8 - 557
Rio Vista (SDL) - 6 - 366
Bradshaw Christian (SDL) - 6 - 354
Ripon Christian (SL) - 6 - 226
Golden Sierra (SDL) - 5 - 413
Amador (MLL) - 5 - 628
Hilmar (TVL) - 5 - 633
Mariposa County (SL) - 5 - 532

Looking in
Hughson (TVL) - 6 - 724 (Only 1 league win)
Woodcreek (SFL) - 5 - 2,216 (Only 1 league win)
El Dorado (SVC) - 5 - 1,512 (Only 1 league win)
West - 5 - 2,140 (Only 1 league win)
Del Oro (SFL) - 2 - 1,695 - (Needs to win out to lock 4th spot)
Foothill (PVL) - 2 - 1,026 - (Needs to win out to lock 3rd spot)

Four wins
Bella Vista (CVC) - 2,033
Summerville (MLL) - 681
Golden Valley (CCC) - 1,722 (NO LOWER THAN D-II)
Cordova (SVC) - 1,687
Escalon (TVL) - 877
Tracy (TCAL) - 4 - 2,094
Sierra (VOL) - 1,321
Pacheco (WAC) - 1,497
Lathrop (VOL) - 1,269
Bret Harte (MLL) - 686

How We Broke This Down

Here are teams we think have already locked a playoff spot. These teams have won at least seven games and have at least two league wins. A team must have a minimum of two league wins to have a chance of making the postseason.

Eight or more wins and two league wins
Ordered by opponent wins
School, League, Opp. Wins, Enrollment Size

Oak Ridge (SFL) - 42 - 2,408
Sonora (MLL) - 38 - 979
Elk Grove (Delta) - 37 - 1,866
Oakdale (VOL) - 35 - 1,637
Folsom (SFL) - 34 - 2,179 (MUST BE D-I)
Napa (MEL) - 33 - 2,093
Patterson (WAC) - 33 - 1,722
Central Catholic (VOL) - 32 - 369 (MUST BE IN D-III OR ABOVE)
Orestimba (SL) - 28 - 783
Capital Christian (GEL) - 27 - 406
Inderkum (TCC) - 26 - 1,734
Antelope (CVC) - 26 - 1,800
Placer (PVL) - 26 - 1,360
Gustine (SL) - 25 - 557

Seven or more wins and two league wins
Ordered by opponent wins
School, League, Opp. Wins, Enrollment Size

Grant (Delta) - 36 - 1,897 (NO LOWER THAN D-II)
River Valley (TCC) - 35 - 1,721
Dixon (GEL) - 35 - 1,163
Bear River (PVL) - 34 - 711 (NO LOWER THAN D-V)
Wood (MEL) - 34 - 1,606 (NO LOWER THAN DII)
Manteca (VOL) - 29 - 1,503
Marysville (GEL) - 24 - 7 - 902
Kennedy (METRO) - 21 - 2,141
Christian Brothers (CAL) - 21 - 1,074 (NO LOWER THAN D-III)

Six or more wins and two league wins
Ordered by opponent wins
School, League, Opp. Wins, Enrollment Size

Bradshaw Christian (SDL) - 38 - 354
Del Campo (CVC) - 34 - 1,836
Whitney (CVC) - 34 - 1,926
Vista del Lago (CAL) - 33 - 1,514
Modesto (MMC) - 33 - 2,392
St. Mary's (TCAL) - 33 - 907 (NO LOWER THAN D-II)
Downey (MMC) - 31 - 1,909
Ripon Christian (SL) - 30 - 226
Rio Vista (SDL) - 29 - 366
Los Banos (WAC) - 28 - 1,320
Turlock (CCC) - 27 - 2,220

Five or more wins and two league wins
Ordered by opponent wins
School, League, Opp. Wins, Enrollment Size

Rocklin (SFL) - 46 - 1,841
Granite Bay (SFL) - 43 - 2,084
Pitman (CCC) - 38 - 2,140
Lincoln (S) (TCAL) - 38 - 2,928
Hilma (TVL) - 38 - 633
Cosumnes Oaks - 37 - 2,148
Ripon (TVL) - 37 - 896
Jesuit (DELTA) - 37 - 2,128
Calaveras (MLL) - 37 - 1,063
Golden Sierra (SDL) - 35 - 413
Amador (MLL) - 34 - 628
Vanden (SCAC) - 34 - 1,599
Franklin (EG) (DELTA) - 33 - 2,768
Burbank (METRO) - 33 - 1,778
Union Mine (SVC) - 33 - 1,029
Benicia (SCAC) - 31 - 1,690
Rosemont (SVC) - 31 - 1,376
Highlands (SDL) - 30 - 900
Mariposa (SL - 30 - 532
Sacramento (METRO) - 28 - 985
Merced (CCC) - 28 - 1,991
El Camino (CAL) - 26 - 1,592
Vintage (MEL) - 26 - 1,958
Delhi (SL) - 26 - 729
Gregori (MMC) - 24 - 2,207
Lincoln (L) (PVL) - 23 - 1,656
Central Valley (WAC) - 23 - 1,684
Chavez (SJAA) - 22 - 2,484
Fairfield (SCAC) - 22 - 1,486

LEAGUES - Who is currently in contention for automatic entries?

The Delta and SFL will get four automatic bids into the postseason

Delta - Division I
Team, enrollment, league record, overall record
Elk Grove (1,866) - 4-0 | 8-0
Grant (1,897) - 4-1 | 7-1
Pleasant Grove (2,596) - 3-2 | 4-4
Jesuit (2,128) - 3-2 | 5-3
Franklin (2,768) - 3-2 | 5-3

SFL - Division I
Folsom (2,179) - 4-0 | 8-0
Oak Ridge (2,408) - 5-0 | 8-1
Rocklin (1,841) - 2-2 | 5-3
Granite Bay (2,084) - 2-2 | 5-3
Woodcreek (2,216) - 1-3 | 5-3
Del Oro (1,695) - 1-3 | 2-6

The VOL, SL, PVL, TCC and TVL will receive three automatic entries

VOL - Division III
Central Catholic (369) - 5-0 | 8-0
Oakdale (1,637) - 5-0 | 8-0
Manteca (1,503) - 4-1 | 7-1

SL - Division VI
Gustine (557) - 5-0 | 8-0
Orestimba (783) - 5-0 | 8-0
Mariposa Country (532) - 3-2 | 4-3
Ripon Christian (226) - 3-2 | 6-2
Delhi (729) - 2-3 | 5-3

PVL - Division IV
Placer (1,360) - 3-0 | 8-0
Bear River (711) - 2-1 | 7-1
Lincoln (1,656) - 2-1 | 5-3
Foothill (1,026) - 1-2 | 2-6
Colfax (649) - 1-2 | 3-5

TCC - Division III
Inderkum (1,734) - 4-0 | 8-0
River Valley (1,721) - 4-1 | 7-2
Yuba City (1,777) - 3-2 | 3-6

TVL - Division V
Ripon (896) - 3-0 | 5-3
Modesto Christian (160) - 2-1 | 3-5
Hilmar (633) - 2-1 | 5-3

The remaining leagues will receive two automatic entries

CAL - Division III
Christian Brothers (1,074) - 3-0 | 7-1
Vista del Lago (1,514) - 3-0 | 6-2
El Camino (1,592) - 2-1 | 5-3

CVC - Division II
Antelope (1,800) - 5-0 | 8-0
Del Campo (1,836) - 4-1 | 6-2
Whitney (1,926) - 4-1 | 6-2

CCC - Division I
Turlock (2,220) - 3-0 | 6-1
Merced (1,991) - 3-0 | 5-3
Pitman (2,140) - 2-1 | 5-3

GEL - Division V
Capital Christian (406) - 4-0 | 8-0
Dixon (1,163) - 4-1 | 7-2
Marysville (902) - 3-1 | 7-1

METRO - Division II
Sacramento (985) - 5-0 | 5-3
Burbank (1,778) - 5-0 | 5-3
Kennedy (2,141) - 4-1 | 7-1

MMC - Division I
Modesto (2,392) - 4-0 | 6-2
Downey (1,909) - 3-1 | 6-2
Beyer (1,753) - 3-1 | 4-4

MEL - Division I
Napa (2,093) - 3-0 | 8-0
Vacaville (1,924) - 2-1 | 4-4
Wood (1,606) - 2-1 | 7-1
Vintage (1,958) - 2-1 | 5-3

MLL - Division V
Sonora (979) - 5-0 | 8-1
Calaveras (1,063) - 3-1 | 5-3
Amador (628) - 2-2 | 5-3

SDL - Division VI
Bradshaw Christian (354) - 4-0 | 6-2
Rio Vista (366) - 4-1 | 6-2
Golden Sierra (413) - 3-1 | 5-3

SJAA - Division I
Chavez (2,484) - 3-0 | 5-3
Stagg (2,000) - 3-0 | 4-4
McNair (1,647) - 2-1 | 6-2

SVC - Division IV
Liberty Ranch (1,189) - 3-0 | 4-4
Union Mine (1,029) - 2-1 | 5-3
Rosemont (1,376) - 2-1 | 5-3

SCAC - Division II
Vanden (1,599) - 2-1 | 5-3
Amercan Canyon (1,586) - 2-1 | 3-5
Benicia (1,690) - 2-1 | 5-3
Fairfield (1,486) - 2-1 | 5-3

TCAL - Division I
St. Mary's (907) - 3-0 | 6-2
Lincoln (2,928) - 3-0 | 5-3
Tracy (2,094) - 2-1 | 4-4

WAC - Division IV
Patterson (1,722) - 4-0 | 8-0
Los Banos (1,320) - 3-1 | 6-2
Central Valley (1,684) - 3-1 | 5-3

General Playoff Info

A total of 72 teams will be split into six different brackets, with Division I-III comprised of the 48 largest schools. Division I will be the 16 largest schools based on enrollment. Divisions IV-VI will be comprised of the 24 smallest schools, split into three separate eight-team brackets. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule:

1. A school may not play more than one division below their league placement.
2. If a school won a section championship last season, that school must play at or above that level.
3. If a team wins a league championship, that team must play at or above the level of its league competition.
4. Schools that win three championships in a row will be moved up a division.
5. If a team has maintained success over several years, the Section Commissioner can move a team up a division.

Division VII will be comprised of three teams from the CCAA and SMAL. We will not project those brackets as they are clear on who will make it.