MitchMash: Northern California Open basketball projections

Never has there been so much anticipation for CIF State basketball brackets. And for the first time, I can recall, the CIF isn't promising its release until Sunday evening.

That is due to the advent of the Open Division, which began last season. Teams are pulled into the Open based on a set of criteria the CIF arrived at last year, and that was given a two-year trial. Expect some significant revisions heading into 2014-15. 

The CIF maintains that it will only pick as many teams — up to eight — to complete an Open bracket as warrants. Critics maintain those brackets should be filled by the same amount of teams. The CIF will not budge on that point, so if the South feels it has eight Open boys qualifiers and the North only six, so be it.

That may be at the heart of the contention this season.



With the vast help and input from other scribes and sources — largely Mark Tennis of Cal-Hi Sports who along with Ronnie Flores and Harold Abend follow this meticulously throughout the school year — I give my own three cents on how the Open North brackets should look.

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GIRLS

No. 1 — Saint Mary's (Albany) (26-7): OK, Salesian has defeated the Panthers three of four times but St. Mary's won the last one when it counted most, 65-57 Saturday for the North Coast Section Division IV title. They have head-to-head wins over St. Mary's-Stockton and Carondelet, and the then the nation's No. 1 team Mater Dei-Santa Ana. The Panthers also have two McDonald's All-Americans in Gabby Green – now healthy – and Mikayla Cowling.

No. 2 — St. Mary's (Stockton) (25-4): It has head-to-head wins over Salesian and Bishop O'Dowd, which would have had a chance to be the top seed (it defeated St. Mary's-Berkeley) if not being barred from the postseason for playing too many games. Carondelet has a good shot at this spot as well.

No. 3 — Carondelet (Concord) (27-3): Only in-state loss to St. Mary's-Berkeley and Mater Dei and it has a win over Salesian.

No. 4 — Salesian (Richmond) (27-6): The three wins over the top seed makes this utterly confusing and will cause loads of discussion, but ultimately this is how it should shake out.



No. 5 — Miramonte (Orinda) (28-1): Perhaps the record and blowout losses will confuse committee also. But the Matadors' schedule doesn't stack up with four on top and the one head-to-head with all of them was 18-point loss to Salesian. The Matadors might have chance to redeem that defeat in the first round.

No. 6 — St. Ignatius (San Francisco) (26-4): The Central Coast Section champion is peaking at the right time and has the size and guard-play to compete with any of the above squads. A decisive CCS title win over Sacred Heart Cathedral, though depleted, was impressive.

No. 7 — Sacred Heart Cathedral (San Francisco) (21-7): With UOP-bound guard GeAnna Summers-Luaulu likely out for the year with a knee injury, I would strongly consider cutting this field off at six, but the panel won't look at injuries. 

NOTE: Last season, Brookside Christian (Stockton) was made the sacrificial lamb here and lost by 25 in first round when it should have competed for a Division V title. I don't think the committee will do this again, even though Brookside has a 19-point win over St. Ignatius. Let BC and Pinewood (Los Altos Hills) battle for D5 NorCal bid, which would make a great game and let Northern Section power Enterprise (Redding) battle for D3 crown. Had McNair (Stockton), featuring dynamic transfer Tiara Tucker, defeated Sacramento Saturday, I believe it would have been selected. Sacramento has played national schedule and features multiple college-bound players, but has never won state title. Hopefully they can stay and play for the D2 title.

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BOYS

No. 1 Bishop O'Dowd (Oakland) (26-4): With an 86-60 win over Capital Christian and 70-52 win over Modesto Christian, the Dragons are an obvious top choice.



No. 2 Archbishop Mitty (San Jose) (26-4): The Monarchs are battle-tested, improving and basically have replaced Aaron Gordon with ever-improving 6-foot-8 sophomore Ben Kone. Mitty has won three straight NorCal titles, including the Open last year.

No. 3 Capital Christian (Sacramento) (27-3): Capital Christian won the Gridley Tournament with most of NorCal's best teams and knocked off Southern California powers Etiwanda and Westchester at the MaxPreps Holiday Classic. It has won 12 straight since the O'Dowd loss.

No. 4 Newark Memorial (Newark) (24-7): Winners of 21 straight after atrocious start, the Cougars and Modesto Christian will battle for this spot.

No. 5 Modesto Christian (Modesto, Calif.) (22-8): Lot of losses early, but with the eligibility of dynamic overseas transfer Jeff Wu, this is a very dangerous team.

No. 6 St. Joseph Notre Dame (Alameda) (26-5): With four state titles, the Division V power will likely get pulled up.

Note: Monte Vista (Danville) (28-1) could definitely compete here — it has 17-point win over Mitty — but opted not to move up (it didn't meet the CIF criteria). El Cerrito (28-4) did meet the criteria,  but hopefully the Gauchos will get to try to win a first D3 title. It's very doubtful SJS champions Jesuit (Carmichael) (28-3) or Folsom (29-2) would ask to be moved up. Both have nifty records, but neither meets the criteria. That makes the D1 bracket very formidable.