California: Girls State Basketball Preview With Predictions

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The one girls team that returns to the CIF State Championships can make history too.

 

Long Beach Poly, among the top 17 team in both MaxPreps national rankings, can become the first Division I team in state history to take four consecutive crowns. Point Loma won three straight D-I crowns from 1985 to 1987.

 

Poly can also match Bishop Montgomery (2000-2003) in Division III as the only team to achieve that feat in any division.

 

The 10-game tournament featuring many of the top teams and players in the country opens Friday wiith four games (Divisions II and V) and finishing off with six games on Saturday (Divisions I, III and IV). See all times and days below.

 

Though the other nine qualifiers didn’t reach the state finals last season, the most successful girls program in modern state history returns.

 

Brea Olinda, which meets Carondelet in the Division II championship, has reached the state-title game 10 other times – a record – with a record amount of wins, eight.

 

After winning three of five games last year, Northern California girls holds a 65-57 edge in titles with big advantages in Division IV (14-7) and D-V (17-4).

 

Southern California holds advantages in D-I (19-8) and D-III (14-12), while with Mitty’s 59-49 overtime win over Mira Costa last year, Northern California holds a 14-13 edge at D-II.

 

DIVISION I – Saturday, 6 p.m.

Long Beach Poly Jackrabbits (31-3) vs. Monte Vista Mustangs (29-2)

 

WIN STREAKS: Poly 4, Monte Vista 8.

 

STATE APPEARANCES (RECORD): Poly 4 (3-0), Monte Vista 1 (0-0).

 

TERRIFIC TRIOS: Poly – 6-3 Monique Oliver, 5-7 Ariya Crook-Williams, 5-8 Brittany Williams; Monte Vista – 6-0 Niveen Rasheed, 5-11 Alexandra Whalen, 5-10 Dani Rabago.

 

POINTS PER GAME (ALLOWED): Poly 62.0 (36.1), Monte Vista 60.5 (34.6).

 

GAME ON: This is a classic showdown of veteran state team versus the rookie.

 

The Jackrabbits return all but four graduated players from a year ago, including the team’s MVP, McDonald’s All American and now Rutgers freshman Jasmine Dixon. Replacing Dixon as the team’s go-to player is USC-bound Oliver, who earlier this month was selected to the McDonald’s All-American team.

 

Like past years with coach Carl Buggs, Poly doesn’t have a dominant scorer and comes at opponents in waves. This year’s squad is particularly deep and guard oriented, shown in last week’s 67-54 South Region title win over upstart Colony. Crook-Williams and Wilson led the charge with 16 points each, but Oliver, Thadddesia Southall, Ta’nitra Byrd and Kelli Thompson all scored between seven and nine.

 

After winning 19 straight, almost all by extremely lopsided margins, the Jackrabbits had an awakening two weeks ago, losing in the Southern Section I-AA championship to nationally-ranked Cajon. Poly then cruised to a pair of easy victories before scoring tough wins over Troy (44-38) and Colony, two teams with 30 wins each.

 

Monte Vista stepped into a Regional final for only the second time last week, recording its first victory with a record-setting 42-25 win over Kennedy. It was the least amount of points allowed in a North Region Division I game.

 

Defense is the team’s staple, along with one of the state’s most complete players in Rasheed. The senior forward can play all five positions for the Mustangs and she’ll likely bring the ball up court against Poly’s fullcourt pressure.

 

Rasheed is capable of recording a triple-double every night out and is the team’s leader in scoring, assists, rebounds and steals. The rest of Mustangs’ starting five is capable of scoring in double digits as shown last week when Rabago, a 5-10 junior, stepped up when Rasheed had an off-shooting day. Rabago scored 10 of her 11 points in the first half.

 

Other starters include Amil Amin, a 6-0 senior, Whalen, a 5-11 senior, and Nicole Vigar, a 5-10 senior. The Mustangs aren’t giant but all in their rotation are between 5-9 and 6-foot. They play extremely well together, know their roles and play an extremely smart extended zone, which could give Poly trouble.

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The Jackrabbits’ quickness and pressure will be tough for Monte Vista to match, but with Rasheed leading the squad the Mustangs rarely lose their poise.

 

PREDICTION: Monte Vista will be in this game to the end, but eventually will wear down to the deeper Jackrabbits. Oliver has been quiet of late and her length should give the Mustangs problems. It wouldn’t shock me if Monte Vista pulls a shocker – this Mustangs’ team is special – but Poly should prevail. Poly 54, Mont Vista 52.  

 

DIVISION II – Friday, 6 p.m.

Brea Olinda Wildcats (32-2) vs. Carondelet Cougars (29-3)

 

WIN STREAKS: Brea Olinda 28, Carondelet 15.

 

STATE APPEARANCES (RECORD): Brea Olinda 11 (8-2), Carondelet 3 (1-1).

 

TERRIFIC TRIOS: Brea Olinda – C Justine Hartman, F Kendall Rodriguez, G Jonae Ervin; Carondelet – G Ricki Radanovich, F Erica Payne, G Hannah Huffman.

 

POINTS PER GAME (ALLOWED): Brea Olinda 67.1 (38.1), Carondelet 67.7 (47.0)

 

GAME ON:  Early losses propelled both teams to reach this pinnacle game.

 

Brea Olinda, with huge expectations, lost two of its first five games though both were to quality teams, Cajon (53-46) and Wesleyan-Norcross, Ga. (49-41). Still the defeats humbled and refocused the Wildcats, who haven’t lost since Dec. 18.

 

Along the way they were able to avenge the loss to Cajon (58-47) and last week the Wildcats recorded their signature win with a huge 44-38 win over previously undefeated Mater Dei, ranked No. 1 in the country by several polls.

 

In that game, Ervin, one of the country’s top point guards, took over by scoring 18 points in just 21 minutes of play. She was saddle with foul trouble. Defensive pressure helped secure the win as the Wildcats forced 29 turnovers.

 

The team can score from all positions with 6-2 Hartman, one of the nation’s top sophomore post player, leading the team at 14.9 points per game. Other double digit scorers are Rodriguez (11.3), a 6-foot senior, Kelsey Harris (10.9), a 5-9 junior, and Ervin (10.7), a 5-2 senior who led the Wildcats into the 2007 state title game, only to lose to Archbishop Mitty 54-49.

 

Mitty and Carondelet have had many battles over the year, but none more thrilling than the Cougars’ 76-73 triple overtime win on March 12. Carondelet is indeed battle-tested with its wake-up call coming at midseason against Div. I North Region champion Monte Vista in an East Bay Athletic League game.

 

The Cougars fell behind by 19 in the first half and eventually lost 53-42 on Jan. 21. The team regrouped and hasn’t lost since, using a variety of weapons much like Olinda, from all spots on the court.

 

Their most lethal scorer is Radanovich, a potent 3-point shooter who scored a career high 30 in the regional semifinal win over Mitty. The following game, last week’s 60-50 win over top seed Oak Ridge, Radanovich went cold, so Huffman took over, scoring 12 of her 14 in the second half. The 5-9 guard is one of the more athletic freshmen you’ll see, extremely strong and quick.

 

Payne, a 6-2 sophomore, and Erin Boettcher, a 6-3 junior, give Carondelet plenty of length and physicality and Hilary Rosette, a 6-foot senior, has been a mainstay off the bench. She scored 14 in the regional final.

 

PREDICTION: Like the Div. I game, the Southern California school is the heavy favorite and battle-tested. But Carondelet has too many weapons and too much depth to go away easily. This one should be close to the end when Ervin may take over at the line. Brea Olinda 61, Carondelet 54.

 

DIVISION III – Saturday, 1 p.m.

Inglewood Sentinels (19-16) vs. St. Mary’s Rams (30-3)

 

WIN STREAKS: Inglewood 3, St. Mary’s 22.

 

STATE APPEARANCES (RECORD): Inglewood 1 (0-0), St. Mary’s 7 (4-2).

 

TERRIFIC TRIOS: Inglewood – C Tayler Champion, PG Hazel Ramirez, F Renee Golliday; St. Mary’s – G Chelsea Gray, F Afure Jemerigbe, F Ali Gibson.

 

POINTS PER GAME (ALLOWED): Inglewood 62.2 (45.5), St. Mary’s 79.7 (44.2).

 

GAME ON:  Don’t look at the records in this one. Inglewood had to forfeit 12 wins earlier this year for using an ineligible player. On the court, the Sentinels are 31-4.

 

With that player, they lost tight games to Division I region winner Long Beach Poly 67-58 and D-4 region semifinals Pacific Hills 48-44. Since the forfeits, the Sentinels are 19-2.

 

The team’s most impressive win might have been in Saturday’s regional final over Marlborough, 74-57. Even with leading scorer and Oregon State-bound Champion struggling from the field (4 of 16, eight points), the Sentinels won handily behind Beadle (15 points, 10 rebounds), Ramirez (14 points, seven assists) and Golliday (14 points, eight rebounds).

 

Champion (13.9 points per game) still contributed with 13 rebounds and though Inglewood isn’t the biggest squad around, they can board. The Sentinels held a 51-30 rebound edge against Marlborough.

 

Ramirez’ play will be key because the Rams pressure from end-to-end whether they score a bucket or not. They forced 29 turnovers last week against a rock solid Sacred Heart Cathedral team, which features one of the state’s top point guards Ki-Ki Moore.

 

Ramirez is not only a tremendous ball-handler and passer, but she is effective from the foul line (77 percent). She made 10 of 11 against Marlborough.

 

St. Mary’s features to of the best and most dynamic juniors in the country in Gray, a 5-11 point guard, and Jemerigbe, a high-flying 5-11 forward. Gray had 24 points including the game-winning basket at the buzzer during the regional final, 62-60 in a battle of nationally-ranked teams. Jemerigbe added 20 points.

 

According to St. Mary’s coach Tom Gonsalves, Gray averages 19.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game.

 

The Rams are the highest scoring team in the state, utilizing their ball-hawking skills and pressure, 3-point shooting and driving ability of Gray and Jemerigbe. Gibson, Annissa Garcia and Alle Moreno have all scored better than 20 points in a game this year and the team’s bench is extremely deep.

 

St. Mary’s has scored 90 or more nine times this season, twice clearing the triple digits. Inglewood likes the up-tempo game so this should be a high scoring affair.

 

PREDICTION: St. Mary’s rejoiced in its win over Sacred Heart Cathedral and understandably so. The 2008 loss was bitter and festered for an entire year. But the Rams’ biggest obstacle this week may be forgetting they have another huge obstacle. An off shooting night at Arco isn’t that uncommon, meaning Gray and Jemerigbe will need to get to the basket. It’s tough to simulate the pressure by St. Mary’s or the pace. I don’t see Gray letting them lose. A letdown and closer game for sure. But St. Mary’s shall prevail. St. Mary’s 68, Inglewood 63.

 

 

DIVISION IV – Saturday, 9:30 a.m.

Mater Dei Catholic Crusaders (29-3) vs. Modesto Christian (27-7)

 

WIN STREAKS: Mater Dei Catholic 3, Modesto Christian 13.

 

STATE APPEARANCES (RECORD): Mater Dei Catholic 1 (0-0), Modesto Christian 2 (0-1).

 

TERRIFIC TRIOS: PG Jhazmine Lynch, C Soulijah Evans, F Ebone Henry; Modesto Christian – G Brandi Henton, F Taryn Garza, F Lauren Lucchesi.

 

POINTS PER GAME (ALLOWED): Mater Dei Catholic 62.4 (44.3), Modesto Christian 66.1 (37.3).

 

GAME ON:  The battle of the Crusaders will feature a first-time winner. That’s a guarantee.

 

Nothing else is as each recorded victories over the top seeds in regional action, Mater Dei Catholic exacting revenge on San Diego Section rival Bishop’s 54-51, and second-seed Modesto Christian surprising St. Mary’s-Berkeley in overtime 62-57.

 

Mater Dei Catholic, formerly known as Marian Catholic, is extremely balanced and experienced.

 

The 5-6 Lynch, 6-1 Evans and 5-10 Henry average between 14.0 and 14.7 points per game and all are seniors. They were a model of consistency in the regional title game as Lynch had 15 points, Evans 11 points and 11 rebounds and Henry 10 points and 13 rebounds.

 

A fourth key contributor is another senior Danae Johnson, a 5-9 guard, who averages 9.0 points per game and had 12 against Bishop’s, which defeated Mater Dei Catholic in the San Diego Section finals.

 

Modesto Christian is also extremely balanced with five players more than capable of scoring in double digits, led by the 5-8 Henton, who broke loose for 27 in the regional championship against St. Mary’s.

 

Henton loves to drive to the basket and against St. Mary’s went to the free throw line 22 times, connecting on 16. She averages 15.3 points per game and gets many points off of steals. She leads the team in that category at 4.1.

 

Garza, a 5-11 junior, is the only other Modesto player to average in double figures (12.6), but Lucchesi (9.8), Danielle Thompson (9.5) and Stefani Agostini (8.1) have all led the team in scoring at times this season.

 

PREDICTION: This is a tough one to call, but Mater Dei appears slightly more battle-tested and experienced. The long trip and early start favor Modesto Christian, but the senior play favors the San Diego squad. Mater Dei 54, Modesto Christian 48.

 

DIVISION V – Friday, 3:30 p.m.

Bellarmine-Jefferson Guards (33-1) vs. Pinewood Panthers (31-4)

 

WIN STREAKS: Bellarmine-Jefferson 19, Pinewood 21.

 

STATE APPEARANCES (RECORD): Bell-Jeff 1 (0-0), Pinewood 4 (3-0).

 

TERRIFIC TRIOS: Bell-Jeff – G Shelley Gupilan, G Margeaux Fupilan, G Rishonda Napier; Pinewood – F Lindsay Nickel, G Hailie Eackles, G Miranda Seto.

 

POINTS PER GAME (ALLOWED): Bell-Jeff 66.4 (42.3), Pinewood 55.4 (35.1).

 

GAME ON:  Most on hand, including Pinewood, know little about the first-time squad from Burbank. Two things quickly stand out. The team is befitting of its nickname as the Guards start all guards. And they have the most wins of anyone in the state finals, including a signature 61-58 triumph over Los Angeles City champion Chatsworth. 

 

They are led by the sisters Gupilan, Shelley, a 5-9 senior, and Margeaux, a 5-8 junior. Shelley had a game-high 23 points in a 61-49 win over View Park Prep in the regional final. Margeaux had 14 points to go along with a team-high eight rebounds in the victory.

 

Napier is another long-range threat. The 5-6 freshman made two 3-pointers and scored 19 against View Park Prep and the team went 4 of 17 from beyond the arc.

 

Pinewood and its coach Doc Scheppler have lived and died at the 3-point line over the years, and judging from the Panthers’ three state crowns, they’ve mainly thrived.

 

They’ve made 264 3-pointers this year (7.5 per game) in 961 attempts (27 percent). The Panthers have almost taken as many 3-point attempts as 2s (974).

 

The team’s best athlete is Eackles, a 5-8 sophomore with tremendous quickness and leaping ability. She’s second on the team in scoring at 11.0 per game behind 5-11 senior Nickel (13.7 points per game). Other strong scoring threats 5-11 junior center Jenna McLoughlin (7.6 per game) and 5-4 sophomore guard Miranda Seto (6.8).

 

Scheppler’s teams like to press and the Panthers actually average more steals per game (12.3) than turnovers (11.9), a superb ratio. The team’s signature win was actually in the regional final, beating two-time defending state champion Branson 41-30, keyed by a 15-4 fourth-quarter run.

 

Before Branson’s two-year title run, Pinewood had won two straight state crowns and own another in 1999, all with Scheppler as coach.

 

PREDICTION: Having Scheppler and staff in place is a big advantage. The staff has been here many times and knows what to expect. The Panthers will force the action, make it fun, but Bell-Jeff, rising from the Div. IV level, is just a little stronger and battle-tested and will wear down Pinewood. Bellarmine-Jefferson 55, Pinewood 50.

 

Agree with the scores? Disagree? E-mail Mitch Stephens at mstephens@maxpreps.com.