Ohio High School Football Division II State Final Preview: Who Wins?

Who wins in Week 15? Man versus machine wraps this week. For the past eight years I've picked Ohio high school postseason games against Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 formula. And I've done well. This season we again added Need Freeman's CalPreps picks into the mix. And this week we're adding even more! We extended an invite to several Ohio prep experts/personalities and solicited their picks for the state finals. Glad they obliged. This is a new wrinkle we added last season and this year we are pleased to continue. The insight is appreciated.

As for last week? I won with a 12-2 record. Both the Fantastic50 and CalPreps went 11-3. Overall, the Fan50 and CalPreps are tied with 159 total playoff picks right. I'm bringing up the rear at 152.

Below is a comprehensive look at who each of us - and our pool of guest pickers - thinks wins the D-II state title. I've also listed names expected to affect the outcome.

Best of luck to all involved. The State Finals have arrived.

Division II State Championship Preview

Washington (Massillon) (14-0/No. 3 MaxPreps/No. 3 AP) vs Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (14-0/No. 2 MaxPreps/No. 1 AP)

When: Thursday at 7:30 p..m., Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium (Canton)

Players to Watch:

* Dean Clark, Massillon Washington, sr. DB: Kent State recruit who Massillon head coach Nate Moore said was “no doubt” the leader of the defense. “Just a phenomenal player,” Moore said. “The amount of perfect form tackles that he’s had this year probably equals the amount I’ve seen live in all my years of high school football. He hits heavy and is good in coverage.” Special mention All-Ohio.

* Zion Phifer, Massillon Washington, jr. RB: Came in to replace injured starter Jamir Thomas last week and ran for 76 yards and two touchdowns on 15 fourth quarter carries against Winton Woods. Said Hoban head coach Tim Tyrrell: “I don’t see much drop-off with the back-up.”

* Tre'von Morgan, Massillon Washington, sr. WR: Second team All-Ohio selection holds 16 offers including Washington State, Mississippi, Pitt, Iowa, Michigan State and TCU. Undecided.

* Deon Williams, Massillon Washington, sr. OL: Second team All-Ohio.

* Jayden Ballard, Massillon Washington, soph., WR: Holds offers from Ohio State, Penn State, Washington State, Boston College, Missouri, Iowa and Pitt.

* Aidan Longwell, Massillon Washington, jr. QB: Kent State baseball commit also excels under center. “Their QB doesn’t make many mistakes,” Tyrrell said. “He’s efficient and they run through him.”

* Maxwell Turner, Massillon Washington, sr. DB: Third team All-Ohio.

* Nolan Rumler, Hoban, sr., OL: First team All-Ohio selection is a Michigan recruit. “He has everything – size, speed, strength and knowledge of the game,” Tyrrell said. “His first play as a freshman was a pancake. It’s unique when you get a kid that talented and smart. He’s defenitely going to be missed. I’m sure the first day of two-a days next year I’ll be looking for him at left tackle and he won’t be there.”

* Deamonte Trayanum, Hoban, jr. LB: First team All-Ohio holds offers from Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Stanford. Dynamic player that’s racked up 25 touchdowns and 1,231 yards on just 89 carries.

* Matt Salopek, Hoban, sr., DB: First team All-Ohio defender headed to Miami (OH).

* Tyris Dickerson, Hoban. sr., RB: Second team All-Ohio selection is headed to Eastern Kentucky. Team’s leading rusher with 1,896 yards and 27 touchdowns on 206 attempts.

* Caden Clark, Hoban, jr. TE: Alabama commit has 27 receptions for 601 yards and eight touchdowns.

* Shane Hamm, Hoban, soph. QB: Second-year starter has thrown for 2,008 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Predictions:

Eric Frantz (MaxPreps, @EFrantzMP)
Massillon has already had a historic run having set a school record for wins in a season (14), but the Tigers would really like to add the program’s first state title since the OHSAA established bracket-based football finals in 1972. The task got tougher this week when it was learned that senior running back Jamir Thomas – the program’s all-time leader in rushing yards (4,025 yards), rushing touchdowns (56), rushing attempts (773) and scoring (344 points) – would miss the championship due to an ankle injury suffered in the second half of last Friday’s state semifinal win over Winton Woods. Thomas has since committed to Washington State. Next man up. “I think our group is uniquely prepared,” Moore said. “It’s part of being a football player at Massillon.” Hoban makes Goliath look small. The Knights are looking for their fourth straight state title and are riding a 28-game win streak. Hoban, 56-3 since the start of the 2015, is looking to complete the program’s first 15-0 season. “When you’re at this level in the state championship and both teams are undefeated, there aren’t many weaknesses,” Tyrrell said. “ You try to stick to your game plan and go at it. I don’t think we’ve played our best game yet.” Said Moore: "They are a great football team.” Massillon will rise in Thomas’ absence, but Hoban owns one of the country’s top prep rosters. Knights win 38-27.

Fantastic 50.com
Akron Archbishop Hoban (14-0 D2 R5) by 4 (60%) neu Massillon Washington (14-0 D2 R7)

CalPreps.com
Archbishop Hoban 34-28.

Lee Cochran (Managing Editor, This Week Community News, @TWLeeCochran)
With running backs Tyris Dickerson and DeaMonte Trayanum and quarterback Shane Hamm, I don’t see how Massillon can prevent Hoban from a 28th consecutive playoff win and a fourth straight state title. Hoban 35-21.

Steve Blackledge (Prep Writer, Columbus Dispatch, OPSWA HOF, @BlackiePreps)
Hoban's defense is on an incredible roll, having allowed just 20 points in the postseason and 54 in the past 10 games. The Knights' big-game experience – four state title appearances in a row – trumps the desire of Massillon's rabid fan base to win its first state title in the playoff era. Akron Hoban 27, Massillon Washington 17.

Steve Helwagen (Writer, 247sports.com, @SteveHelwagen)
Hard game to pick with two 14-0 teams. Massillon played four D-I teams to Hoban’s two, for whatever that is worth. Massillon claims a bunch of state poll titles. Now they get their first playoff title. Massillon Washington 33, Akron Hoban 27.

Tim Rogers (Freelance Writer, GateHouse Media, OPSWA HOF, @TimRogersCLE):
You have to admire what coach Nate Moore has done at Massillon and you have to like the way the Massillon players responded when Winton Woods tried to make last week’s semifinal a street fight. People have called Hoban the best team in Ohio, regardless of division. That’s a tough statement to argue against. This will be the best game of the tournament. Hoban wins, 24-22.

Seth Staskey (Sports Editor, The Times Leader, @TLSportsSeth)
This is the game that many expected when the season started more than three months ago. Tom Benson Stadium should be close to capacity. Both Massillon and Hoban have basically steamrolled through their schedules en route to identical 14-0 marks. The Knights haven't had a game end under regular timing rules since Week 4. Massillon scores points in bunches, too. I think Hoban's defense will be the difference and Massillon's quest for its' first on-field state title will have to wait at least another year. The Knights make it four straight titles. Hoban wins, 45-31.

Mark Porter (Owner, ScoutingOhio.com, @Mark__Porter)
Hoban.

Thomas Wilson (Sports Writer, Lancaster Eagle-Gazette, @twil2323)
This should be a great matchup between a team that has been there, done that in Hoban and the tradition of Massillon. It’s been a long time since Massillon claimed a state title and they will have to wait a little longer. Hoban wins, 34-21.

Gary Housteau (Photographer, Bucknuts.com, @garyhouse2)
A battle of the unbeatens. Hoban might beat any team in the state of Ohio and Massillon is rthe next challenger. Might be an easier win for Tim Tyrrell and the Knights than everyone is expecting. Hoban wins.

Kurt Stubbbs (Contributor, MaxPreps, @ohiohshoops)
The Knights won their opener (21-14) over Cleveland St. Ignatius, but Hoban hasn’t had a game closer than 19 points since the opening week. The Akron-based school has outscored its opponents (184-20) in the playoffs and is arguably the state’s best team. Tim Tyrrell’s team is looking for its fourth state championship in as many years. Massillon Washington, arguably the most storied football program in Ohio, is looking for its first state title on the field. The Tigers come into Thursday’s game with a spotless record, but will be without the services of star running back Jamir Thomas, who is out with an ankle injury. The Tigers also don’t have many nail biters on their resume with only two games being settled by less than 18 points. Three things that could factor into this game are Hoban’s big game experience, the injury to Thomas, and the Knights’ defense. I will take Hoban to capture its fourth state football championship, 31-17.

EF Picks 2017: 6-1 (86%)

EF Picks 2016: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2015: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2014: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2013: 4-3 (57%)
EF Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
EF Picks 2011: 3-3 (50%)
EF Picks 2010: 4-2 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 5-2 (71%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 4-3 (57%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 4-3 (57%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 3-4 (43%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: N/A

CalPreps Picks 2016: 4-3 (57%)

State Semifinal History

EF Picks 2018: 12-2 (86%)

EF Picks 2017: 13-1 (93%)
EF Picks 2016: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2015: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2014: 13-1 (93%)
EF Picks 2013: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2012: 7-5 (58%)
EF Picks 2011: 9-3 (75%)
EF Picks 2010: 8-4 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 11-3 (79%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 13-1 (93%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 10-4 (71%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 7-5 (58%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 11-3 (79%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 11-3 (79%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 10-4 (71%)

Regional Final History

EF Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

EF Picks 2017: 21-7 (75%)
EF Picks 2016: 23-5 (82%)
EF Picks 2015: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2014: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2013: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2012: 16-8 (67%)
EF Picks 2011: 20-4 (83%)
EF Picks 2010: 17-7 (71%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 21-7 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 21-7 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 23-5 (82%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 22-6 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 25-3 (89%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 19-5 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 18-6 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 16-8 (67%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 20-8 (71%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 19-9 (68%)

Regional Semifinal History

EF Picks 2018: 39-17 (70%)

EF Picks 2017: 46-10 (82%)
EF Picks 2016: 43-13 (77%)
EF Picks 2015: 43-13 (77%)
EF Picks 2014: 44-12 (79%)
EF Picks 2013: 40-16 (71%)
EF Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
EF Picks 2011: 31-17 (65%)
EF Picks 2010: 35-13 (73%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 42-14 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 45-11 (80%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 42-14 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 45-11 (80%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 42-14 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 41-15 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 35-13 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 37-11 (77%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 44-12 (79%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 45-11 (80%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 43-13 (77%)

Regional Quarterfinal History

EF Picks 2018: 84-28 (75%)

EF Picks 2017: 92-20 (82%)
EF Picks 2016: 87-25 (78%)
EF Picks 2015: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2013: 93-19 (83%)
EF Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
EF Picks 2011: 76-20 (79%)
EF Picks 2010: 72-24 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 89-23 (79%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 91-21 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 91-21 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 89-23 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 89-23 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 82-14 (85%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 77-19 (80%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 86-26 (77%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 92-20 (82%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 94-18 (84%)