Ohio High School Football Division I State Final Preview: Who Wins?

Who wins in Week 15? Man versus machine wraps this week. For the past eight years I've picked Ohio high school postseason games against Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 formula. And I've done well. This season we again added Need Freeman's CalPreps picks into the mix. And this week we're adding even more! We extended an invite to several Ohio prep experts/personalities and solicited their picks for the state finals. Glad they obliged. This is a new wrinkle we added last season and this year we are pleased to continue. The insight is appreciated.

As for last week? I won with a 12-2 record. Both the Fantastic50 and CalPreps went 11-3. Overall, the Fan50 and CalPreps are tied with 159 total playoff picks right. I'm bringing up the rear at 152.

Below is a comprehensive look at who each of us - and our pool of guest pickers - thinks wins the D-I state title. I've also listed names expected to affect the outcome.

Best of luck to all involved. The State Finals have arrived.

Division I State Championship Preview

Colerain (Cincinnati) (14-0/No. 1 MaxPreps/No. 1 AP) vs St. Edward (Lakewood) (10-3/No. 3 MaxPreps/No. 9 AP)

When: Saturday at 10:00 a.m., Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium (Canton)

Players to Watch:

* Caden Kolesar, St. Edward, sr., DB: First team All-Ohio performer has 136 tackles an 10 PBUs. Holds offers from Akron, Army, Holy Cross, Indiana state and Robert Morris.

* Quintel Kent, St. Edward, sr., WR: Michigan commit and second team All-Ohio performer has snagged 51 receptions for 804 yards and 10 touchdowns. Colerain head coach Tom Bolden called him a “Gamebreaker.”

* Jordan Castleberry, St. Edward, sr., RB: West Virginia commit and third team All-Ohio selection has rushed for 1,454 yards and 18 touchdowns.

* Lawson Nash, St. Edward, jr., DB: Has a team-high 143 tackles and six interceptions. Had two interceptions and two fumble recoveries in the Eagles state semifinal win over Olentangy Liberty.

* Jeff Pietrowski Jr., St. Edward, jr, DL: Has 100 tackles, 12 sacks, six TFL and 26 QB hurries.

* Ivan Pace Jr., Colerain, sr., LB/RB: The D-I Ohio Defensive Player of the Year has registered 72 tackles, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and returned his lone interception for a touchdown. Offensively, he’s generated 1,364 yards and 22 touchdowns on 162 carries (8.4 yards per). “He would be the sparkplug of the whole thing,” Bolden said. “The kids rally around his play.”

* Deante Smith, Colerain, sr., QB: Third team All-Ohio performer has thrown for 998 yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s also rushed for 1,202 yards and 17 touchdowns. Defined “leader” by Bolden who also said “How he’s been able to throw the ball has taken us to the next level.”

* Syncere Jones, Colerain, sr., RB/DB: Third team All-Ohio defender and Miami (OH) recruit also shines on offense where he’s rushed for 531 yards and six touchdowns. Said Bolden: “He blocks as well as he carries the ball. That’s a big thing.”

* Rusty Feth, Colerain, sr., OL: Miami (OH) commit and 300-pounder just getting straight after injury. Said Bolden: “If we can get him back, that takes us to a whole other level up front.”

* Luke Bolden, Colerain, sr., LB: Miami (OH) commit has 100 tackles and three interceptions.

Predictions:

Eric Frantz (MaxPreps, @EFrantzMP)
After opening the season 0-2, St. Edward has put together a remarkable run. "Those early games we didn’t finish,” head coach Tom Lombardo said. The Eagles have been considered underdogs in two of their four playoff games (St. Ignatius and Mentor) and will be again in this game. That’s a position they are comfortable playing from. “I think most expect Colerain to win the game and rightfully so,” Lombardo said. “They’re ranked in the nation and No. 1 in the state for a reason. That being said…it’s one game. We just have to hope we play better Friday night.” Colerain has manhandled the opposition. Only two games this season – a Week 2 win over St. Xavier (14-12) and last week’s state semifinal win over defending champion Pickerington Central (28-14) – have been decided by less than 23 points. “They are explosive,” Lombardo said. “They can churn it 3-4 yards a crack and then at any given moment off they go. They’ve been doing this forever. They are well skilled at it.” Said Bolden: “Every game this year we’ve been double digits in plays over 10 yards. We’ve been explosive offensively. Defensively we’ve gotten better and better each week.” St. Edward resembles a Greater Catholic League South team and Colerain is 4-0 against those squads this season (beat Elder, LaSalle and St. Xavier twice). Cards win this first ever meeting between the two Ohio powers 28-17.

Fantastic 50.com
Colerain (14-0 D1 R4) by 5 (62%) neu St Edward (10-3 D1 R1)

CalPreps.com
Colerain 34-21.

Lee Cochran (Managing Editor, This Week Community News, @TWLeeCochran)
Led by linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., Colerain’s defense has five shutouts and allowed more than 10 points only five times. St. Ed’s doesn’t have the offense to stop the Cardinals’ quest for a perfect season and the first state title since 2004. Colerain 31-10.

Steve Blackledge (Prep Writer, Columbus Dispatch, OPSWA HOF, @BlackiePreps)
Over the past two decades, many excellent Colerain teams stumbled at the regional level against Cincinnati's powerful parochial programs. Vanquished by eventual champion Pickerington Central in a 2017 state semifinal, this looks like the year the Cardinals finish the job. Colerain 28, St. Edward 13.

Steve Helwagen (Writer, 247sports.com, @SteveHelwagen)
St Ed’s got in as a seven seed and has been on quite a ride. Colerain has wrecked a lot of very good teams all season long. The Cardinals finish the mission 15-0. Colerain 35, St. Edward 21.

Tim Rogers (Freelance Writer, GateHouse Media, OPSWA HOF, @TimRogersCLE):
St. Edward basketball coach Eric Flannery feels I have an aversion with Eagle athletes. Don’t know why. But, how can you not like a team that has beaten the first, second and third-place teams in the final computer rankings in three consecutive weeks? I like St. Edward in an upset, 42-38. Besides, I want to get back in Flannery's good graces.

Seth Staskey (Sports Editor, The Times Leader, @TLSportsSeth)
Expect a great game as two battle-tested teams. The way St. Edward bounced back from its regular-season loss to St. Ignatius to turn the tables on the Wildcats just a week later clearly caught many people's attention. However, Colerain has simply been getting better and better as the season has gone along. I was impressed with how they handled St. Xavier in the tournament and to knock off the defending state champion, Pickerington Central, last week was impressive. Colerain wins 27-17.

Mark Porter (Owner, ScoutingOhio.com, @Mark__Porter)
Colerain.

Thomas Wilson (Sports Writer, Lancaster Eagle-Gazette, @twil2323)
This is going to a great matchup of two teams that get it done in different ways. Athletes all over the field, but it is almost impossible to stop Colerain’s rushing attack. The Cardinals win this one, 38-31.

Gary Housteau (Photographer, Bucknuts.com, @garyhouse2)
The Ed’s offense was clicking through the air in a Week 1 loss against Mentor, but the Eagles won’t have enough ‘O’ for what is arguably the top team in Ohio not named Hoban. Kerry Coombs former team gets the big school victory. Colerain wins.

Kurt Stubbbs (Contributor, MaxPreps, @ohiohshoops)
The Cardinals are looking for their first state championship since dominating the competition back in 2004 under then head coach Kerry Combs. Colerain comes into the game with a (14-0) record only being challenged twice all year. The offense gets a lot of headlines with its vaunted rushing attack, but the defense is even more dominating. A unit spearheaded by Ivan Pace Jr. and Eric Phillips has given up fewer than 10 points in nine of its 14 games. St. Ed’s flew under the radar this season, which is even weird to type. The Eagles started the year (0-2), but won their next seven before dropping their regular season finale to rival Cleveland St. Ignatius. Ed’s turned around the following week and defeated its rival before avenging a loss to Mentor in the regional final. The Eagles own three state championships, all of which occurred since 2010 and each time defeating Huber Heights Wayne. This time, look for Colerain to get its second state football championship behind its rushing attacking and suffocating defense, 31-21.

EF Picks 2017: 6-1 (86%)

EF Picks 2016: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2015: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2014: 3-4 (43%)
EF Picks 2013: 4-3 (57%)
EF Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
EF Picks 2011: 3-3 (50%)
EF Picks 2010: 4-2 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 5-2 (71%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 4-3 (57%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 4-3 (57%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 3-4 (43%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: N/A

CalPreps Picks 2016: 4-3 (57%)

State Semifinal History

EF Picks 2018: 12-2 (86%)

EF Picks 2017: 13-1 (93%)
EF Picks 2016: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2015: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2014: 13-1 (93%)
EF Picks 2013: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2012: 7-5 (58%)
EF Picks 2011: 9-3 (75%)
EF Picks 2010: 8-4 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 11-3 (79%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 13-1 (93%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 10-4 (71%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 7-5 (58%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 11-3 (79%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 11-3 (79%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 10-4 (71%)

Regional Final History

EF Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

EF Picks 2017: 21-7 (75%)
EF Picks 2016: 23-5 (82%)
EF Picks 2015: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2014: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2013: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2012: 16-8 (67%)
EF Picks 2011: 20-4 (83%)
EF Picks 2010: 17-7 (71%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 21-7 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 21-7 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 23-5 (82%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 22-6 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 25-3 (89%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 19-5 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 18-6 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 16-8 (67%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 17-11 (61%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 20-8 (71%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 19-9 (68%)

Regional Semifinal History

EF Picks 2018: 39-17 (70%)

EF Picks 2017: 46-10 (82%)
EF Picks 2016: 43-13 (77%)
EF Picks 2015: 43-13 (77%)
EF Picks 2014: 44-12 (79%)
EF Picks 2013: 40-16 (71%)
EF Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
EF Picks 2011: 31-17 (65%)
EF Picks 2010: 35-13 (73%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 42-14 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 45-11 (80%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 42-14 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 45-11 (80%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 42-14 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 41-15 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 35-13 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 37-11 (77%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 44-12 (79%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 45-11 (80%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 43-13 (77%)

Regional Quarterfinal History

EF Picks 2018: 84-28 (75%)

EF Picks 2017: 92-20 (82%)
EF Picks 2016: 87-25 (78%)
EF Picks 2015: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2013: 93-19 (83%)
EF Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
EF Picks 2011: 76-20 (79%)
EF Picks 2010: 72-24 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2018: 89-23 (79%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2017: 91-21 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2016: 91-21 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2015: 89-23 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 89-23 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 82-14 (85%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 77-19 (80%)

CalPreps Picks 2018: 86-26 (77%)

CalPreps Picks 2017: 92-20 (82%)
CalPreps Picks 2016: 94-18 (84%)