NorCal basketball breakdown: New format, six divisions with predictions

The following is a breakdown of the Northern California championship basketball games to be played at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento and American Canyon High School on Saturday. The winners advance to the state championships March 22-23 at Sleep Train Arena.

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BOYS

Open Division
No. 4 Sheldon (Sacramento) (27-5) vs. No. 2 Archbishop Mitty (San Jose) (28-4) at Sleep Train Arena, 8 p.m. — This great matchup features one of Northern California's all-time great prep players — No. 5 national recruit Aaron Gordon, a 6-foot-8 forward from Mitty with all the skills — against a truly special, athletic, unselfish squad led by Washington-bound Darin Johnson and San Diego State signees D'Erryl Williams and Dakarai Allen. Williams is banged up with an ankle sprain, but will no doubt give it a go. Freshman point guard Devin Greene, who had 23 against Mitty during a 71-65 loss on Dec. 8, is more than an able replacement for Williams. Gordon, who averages 22 points, 15 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 4 assists, will need a lot of help. Connor Peterson, a 6-2 junior guard, and 6-6 senior post Brandon Farrell can offer plenty. Mitty, a two-time defending state Division II champion, was No. 14 and Sheldon, the defending NorCal Division I champion, was No. 16 in the preseason MaxPreps Xcellent 25 National Basketball Rankings. Mitty is No. 22 and Sheldon No. 23 in the national Freeman Rankings.

The skinny: Sheldon is riding high from an emotional win over Salesian and has so many weapons. If Johnson shoots like he did in the semifinals — he had 24 points — Sheldon wins going away. But Sleep Train Arena isn't a shooter's friend, giving Gordon more than fighter's chance. Hard to go against the big fella. Impossible, in fact.

Prediction: Mitty 51, Sheldon 50.

Division I
No. 1 Deer Valley (Antioch) (26-5) vs. No. 2 Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (26-6) at Sleep Train Arena, 4 p.m. — One of the Bay Area's greatest and most productive tandems in 6-10 Kentucky-bound Marcus Lee (17.9 points, 19.2 rebounds, 6.9 blocks, 3.7 assists per game) and UNLV signee Kendall Smith (22.5 points, 6.7 assists, 5.4 rebounds per game) from Deer Valley takes on a savvy, cohesive Pleasant Grove squad led by the trio of Malik Thames (17.5 ppg), Colfax "Cole" Nordquist (15.1) and Matthew Hayes (14.6). Thames scored 31 in a semifinal wire-to-wire win over De La Salle.

The skinny: This could be the best game of the day. If Lee and Smith stay out of foul trouble, we don't think Deer Valley could be beat. Pleasant Grove had a lot less trouble with De La Salle than Deer Valley did. It's a great matchup between Thames and Smith. The game might be won/lost right there.

Prediction: Deer Valley 71, Pleasant Grove 69.

Division II
No. 1 Dublin (26-6) vs. No. 11 College Park (Pleasant Hill) (25-5) at Sleep Train Arena, noon — This should be fun too as both teams love to get up and down. The Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley teams haven't faced each other, but have lots of common opponents, almost all favoring the Gaels, who are led by the trio of Utah State-bound Jojo McGlaston, Jamir Andrews and Eric Nielsen. College Park made NorCals only because Newark Memorial was pulled up to the Open Division, but then proved its worthiness with three straight road wins, including an 86-82 thriller over St. Francis-Mountain View with Mikey Eggleton going for 24 points. A true Cinderella story.

The skinny: Just too much speed and quickness for Cinderella. Again, not a shooter's gym. Teams in transition scoring layups almost always beat perimeter teams in this arena.

Prediction: Dublin 68, College Park 58.

Division III
No. 1 Sacred Heart Cathedral (San Francisco) (20-11) vs. No. 10 Campolindo (Moraga) (22-8) at American Canyon HS, 8 p.m. — The top-seeded Irish had Southern California Division II finalist JW North (Riverside) down 16 in the third quarter before losing 63-57 at the MaxPreps Holiday Classic in December. After the game North's 6-6, 230-pound Dorian Butler said: "When they came out, they just didn't look like much," he said. "But man, they put it on us for a long time. They know how to play." Indeed. Without a player taller than 6-2, the Irish are battle tested playing out of the rugged West Catholic Athletic League, which has three teams alive. They are led by a trio of guards Khalil James, Herman Pratt IV and DeOndre Otis. Like College Park, Campolindo only made the tournament because Bishop O'Dowd was pulled up into the Open, yet it won three straight road games, including a 69-52 win over Enterprise thanks to 19 points from junior standout Andrew Zolitakis.

The skinny: Campolindo has two very impressive wins over a very talented El Cerrito team and has played everyone tough. Sacred Heart Cathedral coach Darrell Barbour won't let his team consider Campolindo's 10th-seed status. They'll grind this one out.

Prediction: Sacred Heart Cathedral 47, Campolindo 44.

Division IV
No. 1 Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa) (31-3) vs. No. 2 Archbishop Riordan (San Francisco) (20-11) at American Canyon HS, 4 p.m. — Newman has a nice combination of 6-6 Corey Hammell (16.7 ppg), who has 3-point range, and point guard Kenny Love (11.1). Riordan, another WCAL squad, has waves of talent, shooters, quickness and depth, led by 6-3 junior Chiefy Ugbaja, 6-1 junior Bobby Arenas and guards Geru Mabrey and Frankie Ferrari. Mabrey drilled a 16-footer at the buzzer to give Riordan a 48-47 semifinal win over Marin Catholic. (See video).

The Skinny: Just too many weapons and quickness for Riordan.

Prediction: Riordan 56, Newman 52.

Division V
No. 1 St. Joseph Notre Dame (Alameda) (24-11) vs. No. 2 Capital Christian (Sacramento) (26-4) at American Canyon HS, noon — St. Joseph has the most Northern California titles (eight), including the last two, and is led by rugged 6-7 junior Temidayo Yussuf, who had 16 in a 44-41 semifinal win over Branson. Lamont Banks (6-5, 215) and Justin Brown (6-2, 200) give the Pilots loads of muscle down low. Capital Christian got 21 points from Nifae Lealao, Jr. and 15 by Trey Belton to defeat University 66-50 in the semifinals. Lealao, a 6-6 junior, leads three Cougars in double-figure scoring per game.

The Skinny: Experience matters in big games like this and St. Joseph coach Don Lippi has seen it all.

Prediction: St. Joseph 51, Capital Christian 48.

GIRLS

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Open Division
No. 1 Bishop O'Dowd (Oakland) (28-3) vs. No. 2 St. Mary's (Stockton) (31-2) at Sleep Train Arena, 6 p.m. — Two of the top 15 teams in the country square off in what should be a much closer game than on Feb. 8, an 80-59 O'Dowd victory at home. O'Dowd's home gym is extremely small and St. Mary's loves to run and push. O'Dowd has four Division I players on its starting five, including a front line of 6-4 McDonald's All-American Oderah Chidom, 6-3 Virginia Tech ignee Breanna Brown and 6-2 Cal-bound K.C. Waters. The Dragons aren't just big, but are blessed with three extremely quick and talented guards, led by Cal-bound Ariell Bostick, though many think Asha Thomas and Aisia Robertson are two of the top sophomores in the state. Many believe Brijanee Moore, of St. Mary's, is the top sophomore guard in the state and freshman Kat Tudor (5-10) is one of the top sophomores. Combine those two with future Division I players Charise Holloway, Unique Coleman and Onome Jemerigbe and this should be perhaps the most entertaining game, either gender, of the day.

The skinny: Tom Gonsalves-coached teams don't get beat by 21 often, so you can bet St. Mary's will bring A game. If O'Dowd didn't have such good guards or so many seniors, it might get trapped into believing it might have another lopsided win. Too much is at stake.

Prediction: O'Dowd 65, St. Mary's 60.

Division I
No. 12 Berkeley (21-11) vs. No. 10 Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (28-4) at Sleep Train Arena, 2 p.m. — Undoubtedly the two lowest seeds to ever make a Division I title game, but don't be fooled. The Division I field was wide open and these two squads, which met for the title in 2010, a 52-42 Oak Ridge win, each went on the road three times for victories. The programs are rich in tradition. Behind coach Stephen White, Oak Ridge has averaged 28 wins over the last seven seasons, including a state title in 2010. That team was led by Sara James. This one, which got a combined 36 points from Ali Bettencourt and Lauren Liebert in a 51-50 semifinal triumph over Heritage, is balanced. Berkeley has a Northern California record 11 titles in 15 tries, including five of the last seven. This was supposed to be a down year, but the Yellowjackets played a mammoth schedule and are led by the 5-10 duo of Desire Finnie and Rachel Howard, their two tallest players. They are playing their best basketball of the season.

The Skinny: Comparing scores is always tricky, but on Feb. 28, Oak Ridge lost to Kennedy 65-42, and Berkeley thumped Kennedy 53-40 the following week. Oak Ridge turned around a lopsided loss to Heritage, so, if nothing else, this division has proved nothing is predictable. We'll give it a go anyway.

Prediction: Berkeley 51, Oak Ridge 48.

Division II
No. 1 St. Francis (Mountain View) (23-8) vs. No. 3 Lynbrook (San Jose) (24-5) at Sleep Train Arena, 10 a.m. — For the first time, two Central Coast Section teams go for a D-II title. St. Francis is coached by former Sacred Heart Cathedral coach Brian Harrigan, who led the Irish to four state titles and a national crown in 2008. St. Francis, led by Jennifer Lucian (10.1 ppg) and Shelbi Aimonetti (9.5), already has a 37-27 win over Lynbrook on Feb. 27. Lynbrook has won four straight since then, including a 39-35 semifinal win over Presentation behind Paige Song and Jackie Hudepohl.

The skinny: Oh how we love trite old sayings: "Defense wins championships."

Prediction: St. Francis 39, Lynbrook 34.

Division III
No. 1 Sacred Heart Cathedral (San Francisco) (24-6) vs. No. 2 St. Ignatius (San Francisco) (21-10) at American Canyon HS, 6 p.m. — If winning a Northern California title and spot in the state championship isn't enough, this one carries even more meaning. These two San Francisco schools are bitter rivals. St. Ignatius can erase four straight defeats to Sacred Heart Cathedral with a victory. St. Ignatius is led by Quinci Mann, a 5-9 junior guard who has really come on of late, and Sydney Raggio. The Wildcats have lost to SHC by 6, 3, 9 and 15. Sacred Heart Cathedral, led by first-year coach LyRyan Russell and all-WCAL performer Ge'anna Summers-Luaulu, is superbly balanced and plays great defense.

The Skinny: Oh, as another old saying goes – It's hard to beat a good team five times. Sacred Heart Cathedral is up for it. Especially the day before St. Patrick's Day.

Prediction: Sacred Heart Cathedral 51, St. Ignatius 47.

Division IV
No. 1 Salesian (Richmond) (28-7) vs. No. 3 Piedmont (22-9) at American Canyon HS, 2 p.m. — Salesian wants another shot at a state title after losing in last year's championship game to national power La Jolla Country Day. Salesian is led by one of the country's top juniors in Mariya Moore, who recorded a triple double in the semifinal win with 28 points, 16 rebounds and 13 steals. Piedmont, which won back-to-back state crowns in 2004 and 2005 behind the Paris twins, Courtney and Ashley, has worked its way back to state title contention behind longtime coach Bryan Gardere and the considerable talents of 5-11 junior guard Lauren Seyranian, who is averaging better than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. She had 25 and 23 against Bishop O'Dowd this season and is being recruited by Big 12 and Pac-12 schools.

Skinny: Like Salesian's semifinal win over Menlo, just too much Moore.

Prediction: Salesian 49, Piedmont 39.

Division V
No. 1 Eastside College Prep (East Palo Alto) (23-8) vs. No. 3 Pinewood (Los Altos Hills) (23-7) at American Canyon HS, 10 a.m. — Eastside Prep, behind the considerable talents of 5-11 senior Hashima Carothers, has three convincing wins over Pinewood this season (53-38, 47-34 and 54-30). Unless four-time state championship coach Doc Scheppler has been playing possum, it's hard to imagine this one turning completely around. Carothers, who had 12 points and 16 rebounds in the semifinal win, must stay out of foul trouble.

The skinny: That said, this one will be much tighter.

Prediction: Eastside Prep 47, Pinewood 43.